Created in memory of Alfred Nobel, the economics prize closes the 2025 season of the famous awards on Monday and could prevail over behavioral economics, unless research on artificial intelligence or inequalities wins the favor of the jury, according to experts consulted by AFP.
The name of the lucky winner (the economics prize is usually awarded collectively) will be announced starting at 11:45 a.m. at the Stockholm Academy of Sciences.
He will succeed a trio of researchers based in the United States and awarded last year for research on wealth disparities between countries: the American-Turkish Daron Acemoglu and the British-Americans Simon Johnson and James A. Robinson.
Predicting the future winner is not an exact science, but many people draw up a roadmap to try to identify them, with the nomination and selection process being secret.
“The information economy is well placed”
For Micael Dahlén, professor at the Stockholm Business School, we must look at the economic disciplines that have been awarded in the past.
“In recent years, especially with AI, this field has become very relevant. A strong candidate is Erik Brynjolfsson (United States). Another interesting candidate is Monika Schnitzer (Germany) in the field of international economics,” he told AFP.
In this sense, the Nobel committee could also distinguish the American Susan Athey, who explores how new technologies transform markets and public policies, explains Mikael Carlsson, from Uppsala University.
Only three winners
There are few women on the list: only three of 96 winners. Parity, if not directly involved in the selection process, remains an underlying concern.
“No one is insensitive to the way decisions are understood,” says Magnus Henrekson of the Stockholm Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
The 2025 edition of the Nobel Prizes crowned two women, the American Mary Brunkow, co-winner of the Medicine prize, and the Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado for Peace.
The economics prize, the only one not provided for in Alfred Nobel’s will, was created by the Swedish Central Bank “in memory” of the inventor. It was added in 1969 to the five traditional prizes (medicine, physics, chemistry, literature and peace), which earned it the nickname “false Nobel” among its detractors.
Will Zucman soon be a Nobel Prize winner?
The 2025 harvest could be a priority for economists working on wealth inequalities, Emmanuel Saez (France/United States) and Thomas Piketty (France), estimates the University of Gothenburg.
“Its international comparisons and open databases have made the debate more factual and strengthened the understanding of how different tax systems can reduce inequality without hampering economic development,” Olof Johansson Stenman said in an analysis.
Gabriel Zucman (France) could also be associated with them if his recent notoriety does not discourage the discreet Academy of Sciences that awards the prize.
Gabriel Zucman received the John Bates Clark Medal in 2023, an award considered by informed commentators to be a precursor to the Nobel Prize: 17% of recipients received it.
Among the other possible candidates, experts highlight the names of the Belgian Marianne Bertrand, a specialist in discrimination mentioned by the Clarivate Institute, the Swiss Ernst Fehr, specialized in behavioral economics and neuroeconomics, who could share it with the Americans George Loewenstein and Colin Camerer, as well as those of the Japanese Nobuhiro Kiyotaki and the British John H. Moore, for his work on the impacts of financial frictions on economic cycles, and the American Robert Barro for his research on growth.
The winners receive a check for 11 million crowns (one million euros), which will be shared in the case of several winners.
Source: BFM TV
