The rise in oil prices and the fall of the euro against the dollar caused fuel prices to peak in June 2022, when the cost to consumers exceeded two euros per litre. On average over the year, the price of diesel was 27% higher compared to 2021 and that of petrol was 14% higher. However, in recent months there has been some relief, prompted by the fall in the price of crude oil on the international market. Black gold fell in value on prospects that the economic slowdown will slow demand next year. But specialists warn that there are risks of high volatility in the market due to supply problems, mainly driven by the war that Russia has started against Ukraine.
After the February 24 invasion, the Brent [barril de referência na Europa] skyrocketed to over $100 for the first time since 2014. And while oil production suffered disruptions and sanctions against Russia tightened, the performance of the commodity reflected the situation, reaching the $140 level in March. of almost 14 years. In recent months, however, things have been going downhill and the oil price is around 80 dollars, bringing the price of a liter of petrol and diesel to around 1.60 euros. Over the whole of 2022, the average value of petrol and diesel was 1.85 and 1.80 euros, according to DV calculations based on data from the Directorate-General for Energy and Geology (DGEG). Last year that was still 1.62 and 1.42 euros.
“Fuel prices have gradually fallen since the second half of the year due to strong corrections in oil prices, where Brent has already fallen by almost 40% since the relative highs reached in March this year,” explained DV Henrique Thomas . . In addition, as the XTB analyst added, “the fact that the euro is recovering against the US dollar also supports the declines in fuel prices”.
In the energy market, oil is not expected to rise significantly in value next year. A recent Reuters poll of 38 economists and analysts points to an average price of $93.65 throughout 2023, below the average price of about $100 this year. The government, in turn, expects a figure of USD 77.8 for 2023 according to the state budget for 2023. Henrique Tomé emphasizes that the downward trend in prices “will continue next year on energy commodity prices, which in turn will also push fuel prices as demand continues to be penalized by the slowdown in economic activity and also fears of the risk of a recession”.
Under normal circumstances, when the economy slows, prices fall because demand decreases. But there are several elements in the market that are far from normal and some analysts admit that there is a risk that prices could rise again in a context characterized by high volatility. “While lower oil prices are a relief to consumers facing rising inflation, the full impact of Russia’s oil embargoes has yet to be seen,” experts from the International Energy Agency warned in a recent report. In fact, they believe that “as we head into the winter months towards tighter market equilibrium in Q2 2023, further price increases cannot be ruled out”.
carbon tax return
Another component that weighs heavily on the fuel bill is taxation. And in this area, the government announced on Thursday that it will resume the carbon tax, but gradually.
At a press conference on energy prices for 2023, the environment minister rejected Spain’s example, which decided to end benefits for ISPs and end the 20 cents per liter rebate that was in place. “We are not going to adopt a measure identical to the one in Spain. In Portugal we are working on a gradual solution, a gradual reduction of the exemption from paying the carbon tax, so it will not be under the same conditions,” revealed Duarte Cordeiro. The Minister of the Environment indicated that work is currently underway with the Ministry of Finance to determine the date of re-charging and the details of the measure.
At the beginning of the month, the ministry led by Fernando Medina announced that the carbon tax update would remain on hold until the end of the year, when the tax credit on petroleum products (ISP) was reduced by 3.9 cents per liter of diesel and 2.4 cents per liter of diesel. cents per liter of gasoline.
Sara Ribeiro is a journalist for Dinheiro Vivo
Source: DN
