The calm before the storm? While the French fear an “inflationary tsunami” in the coming weeks, the rise in prices was less strong in December on the shelves of large stores.
According to Iri, inflation for consumer goods stood at 12.6% in December in supermarkets and hypermarkets. As a reminder, in November, this increase was measured at 12% after 11% in October and 9.1% in September. On an annual basis, growth is slowing significantly.
Monthly inflation even reached its lowest level since February last December, Iri notes. In fact, it was 0.38% last month, after 0.86% in November and 1.46% in October.
Although the pace of growth is slowing, inflation remains at record levels despite everything and prices are likely to rise again in the coming months.
“The start of negotiations and the Christmas period may explain this pause, which will however be temporary,” said Emily Mayer, Iri’s director of business insights at LSA. In fact, the increase in energy bills for players, manufacturers and distributors, from January will be felt in consumer prices It is likely that it will be at the end of March / beginning of April, at the end of the commercial negotiations, when it will cross a new milestone, especially since in March/April 2021, inflation was very subdued.”
+15% in April?
For the panelist, inflation could thus rise to 15% in supermarkets at the end of the negotiations that continue until the end of the first quarter. The price increases demanded by manufacturers are close to 40% in certain sectors such as animal feed.
In any case, 2022 will continue to be the most inflationary year in large retailers since panelist Iri measured prices in France in the early 2000s. Price rises averaged 6.1% per year, well above from 5% in 2008, the year of the previous record. This increase follows two years of deflation in supermarkets with -0.42% in 2021 and -0.39% in 2020.
Another historical record that continues to be broken month after month: the difference in price between brands. The difference between the two most expensive brands and the two cheapest (not mentioned by Iri) reached 27 points in December. Never seen. Therefore, the gap was only 18.5 points last May at the beginning of the price increase.
This gap means that some distribution groups are falling behind in terms of price and can no longer afford to dip into their margins to limit price increases. Falling signs should be subject to arbitration against them by consumers. In December, it is the integrated groups of stores that lose market share according to Kantar: -0.2 points for Carrefour, -0.2 points for Auchan and -0.6 points for Casino. It is the independent brands that benefit with +0.2 points for Système U and E.Leclerc and +0.3 points for Intermarché.
Source: BFM TV
