The mild temperatures of recent weeks heralded it, RTE has just confirmed it: the French electricity system is in a favorable situation. After reducing the risk from level 4 to 3 out of 5, the operator of the electricity transmission system maintains this medium level of risk with a reduced probability of activating the red Ecowatt signal.
“We spend a large part of the risk situations throughout the winter, but medium risk does not mean risk 0, it is subject to maintaining this vigilance, he continues.”
8.5% drop in consumption in the last month
It is always the same two levers that allow the French electricity network to stay away from a critical situation: consumption and production. As since the start of the school year, the former remains significantly below the historical averages for the 2014-2019 period. Thus, in the last four weeks it has registered a decrease of 8.5%, correcting the meteorological effects. A decrease that affects both industry and the tertiary and residential sectors. Two factors contribute to directing electricity consumption down, such as the economic effects of the increase in prices and other raw materials, as well as awareness campaigns on energy savings.
To illustrate this difference, the difference between the average consumption during the last week of 2022 and the typical consumption in December thus exceeded 20 GW (50 GW against the usual 70). Three effects have accentuated this delta, in particular the drop in activity and therefore consumption, which is traditionally observed between Christmas and New Year, but above all the weather conditions, in this case the abnormally high temperatures for the season.
The availability of the nuclear park could approach 40 GW at the end of February
Regarding electricity production, capacities have been reinforced on all fronts, starting with the nuclear park, which is already available in more than three quarters with 43 reactors connected to the grid, which corresponds to an availability of 45GW . “The drop in nuclear power at the end of December was a modulation made for reasons of fleet optimization, more specifically for preventive maintenance and fuel savings, explains Thomas Veyrenc. We returned to availability in January, which leads us to comply with the established schedule”.
However, the RTE representative indicated that the availability of the nuclear park could tend towards 40 GW at the end of February, under the combination of two effects: the shutdown of 9 reactors as part of the 2023 maintenance campaign that will compensate the return at the service of the first large reactors affected by stress corrosion (SCC) of bearing N4, then both with a power of 1,300 MW.
The increase is even more marked for hydraulic reserves, which are now above historical averages thanks to careful management by operators. As for gas stocks, they remain high in France as in the rest of Europe and even above averages for the period 2015-2021. “We are liquidating gasoline stocks, but at a rather slow pace, observes Thomas Veyrenc. Generally speaking, we can say that the winter of 2023-2024 will be less risky than the winter of 2022-2023.”
Since mid-December, the situation has been so favorable that France has ended up once again being an exporter with 2 TWh destined for our neighbors in January alone, although France will continue to be an importer throughout the winter period.
Although the mercury tends to fall in the coming days, the operator of the electrical transmission system describes this cold wave as “moderate”. So there is no immediate risk to this, especially as RTE expects temperatures to return to seasonal norms within a week to ten days.
“There is still a period that we will place around the second half of February, there are only a few risks left at that time if we go through a significant and prolonged cold snap because the nuclear fleet will begin to decrease,” France confided. Information from this Wednesday Xavier Piechaczyk, president of the board of directors of the electrical network operator RTE.
Provisions to limit the effect of strikes on production
As for prices, “they have become consistent with the economic fundamentals,” explains RTE.
“The risk premium has plummeted in recent weeks, which has caused a sharp drop in French electricity prices in the futures markets,” specifies RTE, which recalls that consumers should not immediately benefit from this drop, with most prices based on 2022 contracts.
The energy sector should be particularly active in mobilizing against the pension reform tomorrow. If the manager is not able to quantify the consequences on electricity production, Jean-Paul Roubin mentions the existence of measures to avoid an excessive reduction: “There are legal and regulatory provisions that allow RTE to send all the means of production an order to stop the reductions.It is implemented when the reductions are deep enough and induce a risk in terms of the security of supply in the whole territory.”
Source: BFM TV
