This is the type of study whose results can inspire or modify career plans and therefore life. The Directorate for the Promotion of Research, Studies and Statistics (Dares) has published its survey called “Jobs in 2030” which projects the prospects for hiring on this horizon. The report provides analysis at the national level, but also breaks it down by region. In general, the Atlantic coast and the Mediterranean basin will be more exposed to recruitment difficulties in the coming years, unlike the northeast of the country.
It is a demographic problem that is at the origin of this increase in tensions: a large number of baby boomers are going to retire and will only be partially compensated by young people new to the job market. “This will result in a particularly marked imbalance in the next decade in trades where the proportion of older people is high (vehicle drivers) or for those that are very dynamic in terms of employment (commercial and technical-commercial executives)”, Dares explains. .
However, some regions, particularly the coastal ones, will benefit from their attractiveness to register the arrival of workers to their territory, while workers from another trade, unemployed, inactive or immigrants will fill certain positions. In total, Dares estimates the drop in the unemployment rate by 2030 at around 450,000 people finding work.
Potential imbalances in all regions
If the rate of exits at the end of their career ranges between 26% and 31% by 2030 as a percentage of regional employment in 2019, the proportion of potentially vacant positions varies much more significantly from one region to another.
In the West and South regions, the potential labor shortage is high because they have a small proportion of young people who are starting their active careers there despite its attractiveness and good employment dynamics.
These imbalances are smaller in the interior regions, Grand Est and Hauts de France, where job creation is relatively weak. Finally, Île-de-France is a region marked by its strong appeal to young workers and a marked phenomenon of workers leaving for coastal regions. By balancing end-of-career departures and job creation on the one hand, and the arrival of young start-ups and interregional mobility on the other, DARES estimates that all regions would be potentially out of balance by 2030: all would have more recruiting needs than labor resources (see map below).
The “U of growth”…
Taking a closer look, the entity attached to the Ministry of Labor finds a correlation between the dynamism of employment and exposure to possible labor shortages. The latter are thus higher from the Atlantic coast to the Rhône Valley through the Mediterranean basin, an area also called the “Growth U” because it concentrates the territories where employment has increased the most in the last four decades.
And the prospects are quite good, such as Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and Occitanie, which “concentrate more design and research executive professions (study and research staff, engineers and industry, construction managers) whose reference scenario foresees employment growth , due to the importance of high-tech industry in these territories and the establishment of European factories.
Among the advantages of this area, the large cities, the climate and the presence of coasts attract workers, especially skilled workers from other regions, who can fill some of the positions created or left vacant by older people. But only in part and the number of young beginners is still insufficient to complete the recovery.
… in front of the “diagonal of low densities”
In the Center-West and the Northeast, the possible shortage of labor is less for completely opposite reasons. From the Ardennes to the Massif Central via the Channel coast and the Center-West, the “low density diagonal” has been characterized by low demographic and employment growth, coupled with low attractiveness. In addition, the primary and secondary sectors, which are not very dynamic in terms of job creation, are still more present there than in the “U of growth”, for example.
However, disparities exist within this geographic area. On the one hand, the Centre-Val de Loire, Bourgogne-Franche-Comté and Normandy regions show an elderly population and therefore many departures are expected at the end of their careers. But at the same time, the presence of young beginners is reduced because there are fewer training establishments than elsewhere and new workers, mainly from neighboring Île-de-France, cannot make up for this lack. On the other hand, Grand-Est and Hauts-de-France should see their proportion of young starters increase until 2030 because the former manages to retain its students while the latter enjoys a fairly young population. The only drawback is that these regions attract fewer workers from other territories.
The particularity of Ile-de-France
For once, Île-de-France stands out from other French regions. Although it is still the first region in terms of employed workers, its participation in national employment is declining, but the Parisian region concentrates executive-level activities and professions conducive to job creation such as IT, information-communication, business management, personal care or R&D.
While the proportion of older people who retire there is lower than elsewhere, Île-de-France is also the region most affected by the departure of workers to other regions in proportion.
There will be a shortage of cleaners, domestic workers and domestic helpers everywhere
Three trades show a high potential for labor shortages throughout the territory: maintenance workers, domestic workers and home help. In question, many exits at the end of their careers and an attractive bass for young beginners. To which are added numerous job creations, particularly in the most populated regions, which is not unrelated to the aging of the national population.
But the regions are not in the same boat for various other trades. This is the case of (computer science) engineers, industry executive technicians or study and research personnel who should be especially scarce on the Atlantic coast and in the Southwest despite the attractiveness of these territories.
Unsurprisingly, it is in the main agricultural (New Aquitaine and Brittany) and wine (Burgundy-Franche-Comté and Grand Est) regions where the potential shortage of horticulturists, gardeners and viticulturists will be greatest. The explanation is substantially the same with regard to the maintenance technicians for whom deficits will be marked in Brittany, New Aquitaine, Occitania and on the Isle of Beauty “due to the preponderance of trade for Corsica and the dynamism of the industry for the three other regions.” For comparison for this specific profession, the gap between needs and hiring groups would be less than 9% or even non-existent in the most populous regions by 2030.
Recruitment difficulties are accentuated in the south and west of the country
It will be increasingly difficult to find drivers of vehicles, domestic employees and household helpers and sales executives or administrative and financial services throughout France. But as the attached map shows, this difficulty will become more acute in the Pays de la Loire, Nouveau Aquitaine and Brittany, where the labor market is already very tight.
“These three regions are both agricultural and industrial and it is likely that there are many exits at the end of their careers in these professional fields, where the employed are greater than the average for the professions and young beginners are less present”, underlines the dare
The situation is quite different in Île-de-France, where the share of employment in trades where recruitment difficulties are likely to increase is low “due to younger demographics in the labor market (more entrants and fewer people greater)”.
“Finally, the Northeast regions would also be less affected by the worsening of hiring difficulties, mainly due to less dynamic employment. Symmetrically, it is in these territories where the current recruitment difficulties could be reduced the most”.
Source: BFM TV
