The global economy is withstanding repeated shocks better than expected and the IMF has raised its growth forecast for 2023, the specter of recession recedes for several countries while the reopening of China gives hope of a further rebound.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now expects global growth of 2.9% in 2023, according to its report published on Monday. That’s 0.2 percentage points higher than it had expected in October, when it published its previous forecast.
“Next year will continue to be difficult,” he warned, but “it could also be a turning point” on the growth and inflation fronts, the economist said.
The IMF no longer fears a recession in Germany
The slowdown seems less significant than expected in several developed economies, particularly in the United States (1.4% growth in 2023, 0.4 percentage point more than in October).
But also in Germany or Italy, where the IMF no longer fears a recession, contrary to what it predicted in October. Growth in the euro zone, which is holding up better than expected the energy crisis linked to the conflict in Ukraine, is thus expected at 0.7%, or 0.2 points more than before.
The other important factor is the reopening of China after the abandonment of the zero covid policy. Despite the chaotic management that has led to a strong rebound in Covid cases in the country, this reopening should allow Chinese growth (+5.2% vs. 4.4% forecast three months ago) to come and give a boost. boost to the global economy.
slightly higher inflation
In addition, inflation, which has climbed to very high levels around the world, is now slowing down and should be lower in 2023 than in 2022 in most countries, the IMF notes in its report.
The Washington institution, however, sees it a bit higher this year than it had previously forecast, at 6.6% versus 6.5% forecast in October. But it should return in 2024 to levels below those of 2021 (+4.3% vs. +4.7%).
These figures are more optimistic than those published in mid-January by the World Bank, which saw global growth slow further. But that was before the announcement of the end of the massive containment measures against Covid-19 in China. The parameters taken into account by the two institutions are also different.
Source: BFM TV
