A winter without cuts? Not so sure. Thomas Veyrenc, CEO of RTE, was the guest on Good Morning Business this Thursday, September 15. First of all, he returned to the three main factors that explain the current energy crisis, with the consequent risk of cuts this winter.
“We are in an energy crisis with three main parameters. First of all, there is the gas crisis, a European crisis prior to the invasion of Ukraine: we were already at Christmas commenting on the evolution of gas prices. This is important because many European countries produce electricity from gas and it is also important for all gas consumers.”
In addition to this gas crisis, there is also a particular context in the nuclear and hydraulic sectors.
“There is a second stage: a nuclear production crisis. Today, the fleet is operating at half power. It is normal that there are reactors stopped, from summer to autumn, it is rare that there are so many. So the question is what will be the nuclear production for the winter? And that is a particularly French crisis. And then follows the drought, with multiple repercussions, including in the production of hydroelectricity, our second source of electricity production. We don’t talk about that. a lot, but when we combine these elements it is natural that we arrive at a situation in which the risk increases”.
The day before, and in the face of a “degraded” situation, RTE exceptionally advanced the “surveillance” period that will begin in the autumn and will refer in particular to the months of November and December. Therefore, the manager seems more cautious than EDF, which promises to restart the closed nuclear reactors this winter. Given the calls for energy saving, in some cases it will be necessary to go further. For Thomas Veyrenc, there are “three major parameters” to take into account to anticipate the situation for next winter.
Another parameter: electricity exchanges in Europe, “probably the most discriminatory”:
“The more the trading system and the Community legislation work, the more solidarity we have between us in gas and electricity, the better it will be.” Last point: consumption. “Consumption, we were cautious, we considered that it was like today, because of the sobriety plan or because of the price increase, that could lower it.”
In reality, everything will depend on the severity of the winter, summarizes Thomas Veyrenc:
“If the winter is mild, you don’t hear about RTE. (…) If we are in a medium situation, the number of days in which we would ask for specific actions will be between 0 and 5. Where we will ask for voluntary reductions in consumption, first of all from the companies with which we are currently signing alliances” .
An “unlikely but anticipated” scenario
And the worst scenarios? The “most unlikely situations” are well anticipated by RTE:
“In the worst case, which is facing a brutal hypothesis on European exchanges (…), to which would be added a very cold winter, which we have not known for more than 10 years, we could reach up to 30 days that are reported. It’s the worst case scenario, it’s really very unlikely, but it exists.”
However, RTE excludes blackout, “the loss of total control of the system.”
Source: BFM TV
