Following Tuesday’s INSEE, the Banque de France confirms the good resilience of the French economy despite successive crises. In its latest business survey published this Wednesday, the institution is pleased to verify that, according to the 8,500 business leaders consulted, “activity has once again progressed in each of the three large sectors (industry, construction, services, editor’s note) in January” and even “steeper than they had anticipated last month.
Banque de France experts estimate GDP growth of 0.2% in January, including +0.1% in agriculture and industry, +0.1% in construction and +0.3% in commercial services. They also expect “weak GDP growth” in February with, however, contrasts between “weak negative growth in construction and a slight increase in industry and services.”
Supply difficulties continue to ease
As for the supply difficulties that have paralyzed production in recent months, the improvement in the situation observed since April 2022 continues. In construction, 31% of business leaders were still encountering such difficulties in January, compared to 33% in December.
The drop is even more pronounced in industry (33% in January, after 40% in December). But this fall must be put into perspective due to the new difficulties related to demand. In fact, “the erosion of order books in the industry in January affected almost all sectors and was particularly marked in chemicals. Compared to the peak of March 2022, the situation has deteriorated significantly in wood, paper, printing, chemicals, and rubber and plastic products. , which are suffering from a drop in demand or from foreign competition “with, in particular, the recovery of Chinese production since the lifting of sanitary restrictions,” underlines the Banque de France.
Price pressures also appear to be easing very gradually. In January, 33% of executives said they had increased their prices in the industry, 11 points less than a year ago in the same period. In construction, this proportion went from 49 to 43% in one year. On the other hand, it rises in the tertiary sector (32% in January, compared to 22% a year earlier) “due to the spread of inflation from goods to services”, observes the Banque de France, which specifies that “the prospects February suggests a return of this proportion to more contained levels, in industry (24%), construction (36%) and market services (20%)”.
Finally, recruitment difficulties remain significant (51% of the companies affected in January) although they have fallen for the fourth consecutive month (58% in September).
What impact does the energy crisis have?
In January, the proportion of companies stating that the energy crisis has had a significant impact on their activity increased, both in industry (29% of companies, +2 points), services (24%, +3 points) and in the building (28%, +3 points). +2 points). However, the proportion of managers who believe that energy prices will significantly penalize their activity in the next three months falls slightly: 39% in industry (-1 point), 28% in services (-1 point) and 33% under construction (-4 points).
They are also slightly less likely to anticipate a deterioration in their margins due to the energy crisis in the next three months in industry (69% in January, -1 point) and construction (61%, -4 points) but not in services (44% , +1 point).
Source: BFM TV
