If the unions keep repeating that public opinion is on their side, which opinion polls confirm, it remains that a third of the French are in favor of this reform that arouses all political and social dissensions.
What is the profile of this quieter minority? And what are their reasons?
Support that varies by occupation and political beliefs
According to the latest Elabe survey, 46% of retirees are in favor of the reform proposed by the government. They are one of his main bulwarks of support according to the seven polls already published by the research firm Elabe on the subject since mid-January.
In addition, political ideologies also define the boundaries between support and opposition to the text, explains Vincent Thibault, director of opinion advice at Elabe. The voters of Emmanuel Macron (Renaissance), Valérie Pécresse (Les Républicains) and Eric Zemmour (Reconquête!) Are the ones who have the most supporters of the reform, he continues.
It also stresses that only 6% of those surveyed declared themselves “very favorable” to the text, while 39% are “very opposed”. The “no” of the opponents of the reform are, therefore, more pronounced than the “yes” of their allies.
Allies of the reform fear for the health of the system
Without changes, the pension system would sink into the red by 2030, mainly due to a retirement rate that new entrants to the labor market will not be able to match. This is the argument regularly put forward by the government, and supported by the COR (Pension Orientation Council) report, to justify the need for its project.
An argument also crucial for the allies of the text: for them, this reform is necessary to return to the financial balance of the system, explains Vincent Thibault. They fear that the system is in danger and consider that “the only solution is to work longer,” he adds.
Second, they believe that raising the retirement age is not illegitimate since people are living longer.
At the beginning of the year, supporters of the reform also considered it fair, according to Vincent Thibault. An argument in favor of social justice that “was swept away when we talked about 1,200 euros.”
An opinion that never tires… again
It is neither the first pension reform nor the first social movement that has shaken France. The last attempt to modify the system dates from 2019; in command, Prime Minister Edouard Philippe defended a text that had also brought unions to the streets. But between today and yesterday there is a significant difference, says Vincent Thibault.
At that time there was “a tiredness of opinion in the face of the mobilization after 3 or 4 demonstrations. It’s not like that today.”
Public opinion is favorable not only to the withdrawal of the text but to the mobilizations, the arrest of France and even the renewable strikes that will not stop making life more difficult for them for a few days.
If she doesn’t get tired, for now it’s a matter of following her closely, says Vincent Thibault. Because “it is one thing to support the movement upstream”, another is to maintain support after several days of strikes.
Source: BFM TV
