More than half of a panel of US economists anticipate a US recession in 2023, with nearly three-quarters of them expecting inflation to remain above 4% through the end of the year, according to a survey by the Federation of Economists. NABE posted on Monday.
According to the president of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), Julia Coronado, who is also the president and founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives, 53% of the panelists “expect a recession sometime in 2023.”
This survey, however, was carried out before the crisis in the banking sector, carried out between March 2 and 10, among 217 economists working for companies or professional federations in all sectors.
Nearly a quarter of this panel expects a recession in the third quarter of this year, 5% believe the recession is already underway, 16% see it coming in the second quarter, and 13% in the fourth quarter.
And nearly a quarter expect that won’t happen until the second half of 2024.
Meanwhile, nearly three-quarters believe CPI inflation will stay above 4% through the end of 2023, “and more than two-thirds are not confident the Fed can bring inflation to its 2% target in the next few years.” next two years.” years without inducing a recession.
And while the United States could default this summer if Republicans and Democrats fail to reach an agreement to raise the debt ceiling, half of the panelists consider this scenario unlikely.
The other half, on the other hand, believe in the possibility of this unprecedented situation occurring, the consequences of which would have unexpected and potentially disastrous effects on the world economy.
Source: BFM TV