Is the pension reform constitutional or not? The 9 wise men of the Constitutional Council must decide this Friday afternoon. The future of this reform depends on this decision. The opposition has submitted three referrals, all of which raise three main issues.
three complaints
First, the choice to go through a social security financing reform bill. However, this type of vehicle is supposed to urgently rectify a budget and not approve a reform as structural as that of pensions, which has budgetary consequences for many years. The opposition denounces here “an abuse of procedure”. For them, this vehicle only served to buy time and limit the debate to a maximum of 50 days.
Another grievance: the method used by the government. The Executive has used many devices: 47.1, blocked vote, 49.3. If all these devices taken individually are perfectly constitutional, their cumulative use has harmed, according to opponents, the clarity and sincerity of the debates.
Finally, another problem: some items, such as the senior index, have very little budgetary impact and therefore could be considered legislative clauses. Clearly, the Majors could consider that they have nothing to do with this text of law.
three possible options
Depending on the complaints retained, three options are possible. Either the Constitutional Council considers that the legislative vehicle or the method used by the government poses a problem, and the entire text is censored. In this case, the reform falls. However, this hypothesis is considered highly unlikely by most jurists.
Or the Elders consider that all this is perfectly constitutional and the entire reform is validated. A hypothesis also considered unlikely. Laurent Fabius, the president of the Constitutional Council, had alerted the government to this risk of legislative horsemen.
Hence the last option, the most probable: the Constitutional Council censors only partially. Then only a few bars are reversed.
Towards a referendum?
At the same time, the Constitutional Council must also give the green light or not to a PIR, a shared initiative referendum. According to most jurists, this has a good chance of happening. All the conditions seem a priori fulfilled. 252 deputies co-signed it, for 185 signatures required. The procedure began on time, before the pension reform was enacted. Finally, it is related to reforms related to the economic, social or environmental policy of the nation.
That said, even if this popular initiative referendum were validated, it would not be suspensive. The pension reform could still be enacted and enter into force, as planned, next September. The procedure still has to overcome many hurdles.
In order to carry it to a referendum, the bill, which establishes that the retirement age cannot exceed 62 years, must then gather 4.8 million signatures, that is, 10% of the electorate within a maximum period of 9 months. If this threshold is reached, MPs will have 6 months to consider this bill. If the parliamentarians do not take it, the President of the Republic is obliged to organize a referendum.
So many scenarios that the unions have scrutinized to prepare their counterattack after this long-awaited decision.
Source: BFM TV
