Like many economic institutes, the OECD doubts the French government’s forecasts for 2023.
Thus, the French economy should grow by 0.6% next year, the organization forecasts in its latest global projections published this Monday, a level well below the 1% forecast that the Government has, which presents the same day its budget for 2023.
The international institution based in Paris has revised downwards its previous French forecast dating from June by 0.8 points, as well as that of all the States of the euro zone where only growth of 0.3% is expected on next year versus 1.6% previously anticipated.
Remember that the Banque de France is even less optimistic with a projection of +0.5%, while Rexcode simply sees French growth of 0% in 2023 for one year.
Global growth is also revised down
Europe is bearing the full brunt of the economic recession triggered by the war in Ukraine, which is now in its eighth month and has led to skyrocketing energy prices and serious fears about gas supplies as winter approaches. .
The dizzying rise in prices threatens the activity of a growing number of companies, especially when it comes to renegotiating their electricity or gas supply contracts.
Manufacturing output is at its lowest level in 28 months according to the S&P Global Flash PMI, undermined by “high inflation, excess inventory and falling demand.”
The extent of the slowdown in the manufacturing sector raises fears of “an imminent generalization of the contraction to the entire private sector”, which increases the risks of a recession in France.
France should also suffer the consequences of the economic decline of its main economic partner, Germany, where the OECD predicts a recession next year.
Beyond Europe, it is global growth that will be weaker in 2023 than previously forecast: the OECD now forecasts global GDP growth of 2.2% next year, down from 2.8% forecast again in June. .
Source: BFM TV
