Will Covid-19 ruin the holidays? Ten days before Christmas, the epidemic continues to progress, although it is still difficult to measure due to a more limited number of indicators than at the height of the pandemic.
“We do not have as many indicators as in other periods, but groups of signs are converging: the circulation of the virus is very intense,” explains Étienne Simon-Lorière, head of the National Reference Center (CNR) for viruses of respiratory infections at the Pasteur Institute. .
In both community medicine and hospitals, Covid-related activity has once again marked a “slight increase”, especially among older people, according to the latest Public Health France bulletin, from a week ago. In the emergency room alone, more than 4,350 weekly visits due to suspected Covid were recorded, which were followed by more than 1,820 hospitalizations.
“With Covid we are in an intermediate phase, not yet endemic like the seasonal flu,” says infectious disease specialist Xavier Lescure, also a member of Covars.
Variant, reduced immunity, winter…
Different factors can explain a resumption, for the moment moderate, of Covid-19 cases. “Since the beginning of the pandemic, waves have occurred approximately every four months, mainly due to a drop in population immunity,” says Xavier Lescure.
Added to this phenomenon is “the foreseeable resurgence of winter, with decreasing outdoor temperatures and more time spent indoors, where viral transmissions are facilitated.”
The circulation of variants can also justify this rebound. XBB.1.5, XXB.1.16, EG.5, BA.2.86… Many lineages are subject to particular surveillance. But one of them, called JN.1, is the center of attention. It is responsible for 30% of the infections observed in laboratories at the beginning of December.
“Appearing suddenly and much more transmissible than its predecessors, JN.1 has an immunological escape almost as significant as its cousins from the XBB family (…) but due to a completely different combination of genetic mutations,” clarified Etienne Simon – Lorière .
The fear of a new triple epidemic
However, this variant is not, at this time, more serious than the other strains of the virus. Throughout the different waves, vaccination and immunity linked to infections have slowly reduced hospitalizations and deaths related to Covid-19.
Health systems are still afraid of reliving the triple epidemic of winter 2022. The simultaneous circulation of the coronavirus, flu epidemics and bronchiolitis had put pressure on hospitals.
To avoid this scenario, although new tensions are already emerging, the government associates its vaccination campaign with a reminder of barrier gestures:
“In this context and with a view to family gatherings for the end-of-year holidays,” vaccination remains crucial, the authorities insist. Less than a quarter of French people aged 65 and over have received a reminder since the start of the new campaign at the beginning of October.
Generally speaking, the French must also relearn how to adopt barrier gestures, as Public Health France highlights. In its November 2023 barometer, the agency considered the adoption of these actions “insufficient” “even in the case of risk situations.” The use of a mask, hand washing and regular ventilation are always required.
Source: BFM TV
