“We thought that Covid was buried and above all converted into a seasonal disease, but that is not the case.” This Monday, June 17, infectious disease specialist Benjamín Davido launched an alert on Franceinfo: Covid-19 is still there.
As the figures from Public Health France explain, the curves do not show the correct trend. Visits to the emergency room increased by 52%, an increase approximately equal to that of calls to SOS Médecin (+51%, 1,507 procedures from June 3 to 10).
“Resources for suspected COVID-19 have continued to increase for eight weeks,” summarizes the health authority.
If the virus remains at a “modest” level of circulation – especially compared to the peaks of the pandemic – this wave arrives at the wrong time. France is preparing for two deadlines in which cases could increase: the legislative elections on June 30 and then July 7, but also and above all the Olympic Games.
“Immune decline”
The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) is observing a rebound in widespread SARS-COV-2 after “a long period of low activity.” But how can we explain that the situation is getting worse as the summer season approaches?
Possible groups linked to Taylor Swift concerts are not highlighted. For Mircea Sofonea, an epidemiologist at the University of Montpellier, the increase “was predictable”, as she explains to Agence France Presse.
A double effect causes this situation. First of all, an “immunological decline” related to less vaccination and a lower effectiveness over time of vaccines on infections, even if they still offer strong protection against severe forms.
According to the General Directorate of Health (DGS), as of June 13, a few days before the end of the vaccination campaign, 360,812 people had received a booster dose. The agency tells BFMTV that 188,035 of these people are 80 years old or older. As a reminder, the stated objective was mainly the protection of the most vulnerable, the elderly or people suffering from other comorbidities.
Race against variants
As the World Health Organization explains, Covid-19 is a disease that “continues to circulate and evolve.” The variants are one of the variables to take into account in the evolution of traffic. At issue is the principle of “immune escape”, the poor adaptation of the vaccine to the mutated virus.
Currently, the JN.1* lineage is the majority in France and overseas territories. Certain subvariants have significant mutations in the spike protein, which allows the virus to penetrate our cells. Thus, these variants “can confer greater immune evasion without increasing severity,” as explained in a Public Health France file.
“As detailed in previous risk analyses, these mutations provide an escape route from neutralization by antibodies, but no worrying signal has been associated with them in terms of severity,” analyzes the SPF.
To better adapt to virus mutations, the WHO recommended formulations targeting the JN.1 lineage for future anti-Covid vaccines in late April.
Loss of good reflexes.
Infectious disease specialist Benjamín Davido explained to Franceinfo a more practical reason that explains this rebound. The loss of “reflexes” has marked the daily lives of the French for more than two years.
“We have lost the reflex, when we are sick, to mask ourselves and, simply, to protect ourselves to avoid contaminating people and creating crowds,” he laments, asking the sick to cover themselves when they have symptoms, “to avoid contaminating people.” . ”.
Epidemiologists also periodically raise the question of ventilation of closed spaces. A precaution all the more important since 49.3 million French people will soon be called to the polls in these closed places.
Source: BFM TV
