The number of cancer deaths increased worldwide in a quarter of a century and could exceed 18.5 million in 2050, estimates a vast study published this Thursday, September 25, calling to strengthen prevention and treatments, especially in less favored countries.
Despite the progress in treatments and efforts to limit risk factors, the number of new cases of cancer has more than duplicated since 1990 to reach 18.5 million in 2023, and the number of deaths increased 74% to a total of 10.4 million, according to this new evaluation published in Lancet and was carried out as part of the “global loading of the disease.”
Alarming projections despite uncertainties
These estimates, which cover 204 countries and territories and 47 types or cancer groups, are considered the most relevant, but the calculations include a part of uncertainty. By 2023, scientists give a range of approximately 16.4 to 20.7 million new cases and from 9.6 to 10.9 million dead.
Most patients lived in low or intermediate income countries. Breast cancer was the most diagnosed cancer in 2023, but those of the trachea, the bronchi and the lungs are more dead.
Without sufficient actions and financing, the number of new cases of cancer could increase by around 61% worldwide in the next 25 years to reach 30.5 million in 2050, and the annual number of deaths increased by almost 75% for a total of 18.5 million, according to this modeling work.
If this scenario is considered more likely, it is accompanied by great uncertainty. Researchers evoke a range of 22.9 to 38.9 million for new cases in 2050, and from 15.6 to 21.5 million for deaths.
Prevention, diagnosis and treatments
Cancer cases and deaths would mainly increase with the effect of population growth and populations, scientists analyze, after age adjustments.
But more than four deaths from cancer worldwide in 2023 (41.7%) are still attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors, particularly smoking, but also a poor diet, significant alcohol consumption, high blood sugar …
Insufficient alone, prevention must be complemented with early diagnoses and effective treatments, stress scientists, who ask for redouble efforts to reduce inequality and increase financing.
Beautiful for public health policies, this study has certain limits, recognizes its authors. There are missing data, for example, in certain countries, and the impact of CAVID pandemic or recent conflicts on cancer load is not integrated.
Source: BFM TV
