HomeHealthCovid-19, bronchiolitis, flu: the situation is improving, but gastroenteritis will soon return

Covid-19, bronchiolitis, flu: the situation is improving, but gastroenteritis will soon return

This beginning of the year 2023 is marked by a sharp decline in the three epidemics of Covid-19, flu and bronchiolitis, although the risk of recovery persists according to some experts.

“The worst is over”. In mid-December, the hospital staff, suffocated, asked for help in the face of a triple epidemic. The 9th wave of Covid-19, a three-repeat flu virus and an unprecedented bronchiolithic epidemic in 10 years, awaits the force of François Braun, the Minister of Health, to multiply the appeals to vaccination and the return of the barrier actions ahead of them end of year partys.

“For the three epidemics, Covid-19, influenza and bronchiolitis, the peaks of these three respiratory viruses are behind us, the trends are downward,” said Mircea Sofonea, a professor at the University of Montpellier.

A decrease in infections and hospitalizations confirmed by Public Health France (SPF), even if the health authorities are ever vigilant and fear outbreaks that could again weaken the French hospital system, already in agony.

• The end of the ninth wave of Covid-19

The ninth wave of Covid-19 contamination, which peaked in mid-December, now appears to be behind us.

“We went from about thirty tests per day to 5-6 tests per day. Covid suddenly dropped,” testified Frédéric Desmoulins, a pharmacist in Issy-les-Moulineaux.

According to the latest SPF data, from January 9 to 15, incidence and positivity rates are declining in all metropolitan areas. The same is true for the rate of new hospitalizations, intensive care admissions, and deaths.

But health professionals do not claim victory too quickly because the prospect of a new wave is not excluded. For Philippe Amouyel, professor of public health at Lille University Hospital, “we are at the beginning of the endemic phase, other outbreaks should arrive, conditioned, for example, on the arrival of new variants.”

The same story for Mircea Sofonea, a professor at the University of Montpellier: “The rest is difficult to estimate because it depends on which subvariant will take over, on how people will appropriate this new health context where there are only recommendations and more”. strong incentives.

That is why we could “very well have a tenth wave on the horizon, but it is very difficult to say when,” he analyzed.

For example, the XBB.1.5 subvariant, which appeared in the United States, should become dominant in Europe within a month or two, according to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). It remains to be seen what his immune escape will be or his impact on hospitalizations in France.

• Severe flu, but declining

This particularly serious epidemic this year is not over yet, but as with Covid-19, it has reached a peak. SPF indicates that the indicators are declining in all age groups and in all metropolitan areas, although traffic remains active throughout the territory.

“The flu remains at a high level but we can think that we have reached the top. There are still hospitalized patients, severe forms of flu mainly in frail people, unvaccinated elderly people,” said Philippe Amouyel.

But he added: “It is important to continue campaigning for this flu vaccine campaign, especially since we have reached the peak, but it is not ruled out that we may have outbreaks, particularly among the most vulnerable and fragile people.”

In fact, while still in the epidemic phase, the flu could experience a “mild start”, warns Mircea Sofonea. The speaker recalls that last year or in 2017/2018, “the contaminations continued throughout the spring.”

• Bronchiolitis, soon in the post-epidemic phase

In early November, SPF announced that bronchiolitis-related hospitalizations were at their highest level in 10 years. Since December, the epidemic has been on the decline.

According to the agency, during the week of January 9 to 15, the circulation of the virus among newborns allowed Île-de-France to no longer be considered in the epidemic phase, while six other regions went from a red alert of “epidemic ”. stage to orange “post-epidemic”.

“The epidemic is already declining since December, it is a seasonal virus. The evolution is favorable because we no longer have this congestion in pediatric intensive care units,” said Philippe Amouyel, from Lille University Hospital.

• Towards a return of gastroenteritis?

Another disease caused by a virus could reappear, after several discreet years, marked by respect for barrier gestures: gastroenteritis.

In any case, this is what the professor of public health at Lille University Hospital fears. “Gastroenteritis should not be long in coming back. They had disappeared during the ‘covid lockdown’ because we used hydroalcoholic gel a lot. As less is used, manual transmission can develop again,” he warns.

Philippe Amoyel then concluded: “We must remain vigilant.”

Author: Caroline Dieudonné with Théo Putavy
Source: BFM TV

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