The sign of the fall of the PSD was accentuated in 2004 under Jardim’s leadership. And the same happened with the PS, which had grown since 1976. The PS stopped at half a dozen deputies and did not leave, while the PSD gradually fell, despite retaining majorities, until it reached the historic minimum in 2019 with Miguel Albuquerque: 21 deputies against 19 of the Socialists who then elected six had. 5241 votes made the difference on that Sunday of September 22, but without the hand of the CDS, which allied itself with its usual opponent, Paulo Cafôfo (then leader of the PS, the tenth) would have managed to break 43 years ” PPD”.
And now, after 47 years of social-democratic rule, can anything change in Madeira’s political scenario? All public statements point in the same direction: the PSD-M, allied to the CDS-M, believes in victory – its leaders even speak of an absolute majority; the PS-M is confident in a “good result as a government”; and all other parties, even those without an elected representative, believe they are “joining the Regional Assembly”.
Behind the scenes, however, the conversation is different. The PSD-M’ is not yet able to calculate the effect [ou “os estragos”, como também foi referido ao DN] which André Ventura can cause”. And that is the great unknown. An “electoral fatigue in the PSD” – the CDS is practically ignored in the speech, and even on the posters, even if it is in the “Somos Madeira” coalition – can “throw wide the doors” at Chega, because Albuquerque never closed them.
Of all the times he was questioned by DN, the president of the regional government always refused to say no to Chega. And he always left “dialogue bridges” ajar, underlining the need to “beat the left” and defending that Chega is “a legal party, like any other party”, because “we don’t need to have complexes”.
“We must always open bridges of dialogue. This stigmatization of Chega comigo does not work, because the party has voters and its statutes and operation have been accepted by the Constitutional Court,” Albuquerque stressed.
The “political issue” is that what the national leader of the PSD refuses to the national government, and has already said it several times and in different ways, is not completely rejected by the regional leader of the PSD for the government of Madeira.
“I want to guarantee the Portuguese one thing: we will not have policies in the government, nor racist politicians, nor xenophobes, nor opportunists, nor populists – or political support (…). I will not make a pact with anti-European, anti-NATO parties, pro-Russian, racist or xenophobic,” Montenegro assured.
One refuses, the other gives in. This is where the “difference” lies that “could ultimately create future problems” for Montenegro, as a party leader tells DN, if Madeira’s “bridges of dialogue” narrow to guarantee a new Albuquerque government in September, saying ” you don’t need the CDS to live” (in this context, José Manuel Rodrigues, former leader of the CDS-M and president of the Regional Assembly, has already said that “of course, marriages also break up”).
What if there is a “bridge” between PSD-M and Chega? “There’s not much to know: if there’s an agreement [com o Chega] let’s walk with the PS to the Europeans [o nacional] with the speech that the PSD joined the extreme right. And that will not be easy to solve,” says the same social-democratic source.
André Ventura says in recent statements to DN that he sees himself “as an opposition and an alternative to the current PSD-CDS government” in Madeira, admits he is “negotiating” with Albuquerque and intends to “form a government” , and guarantees that Chega “will not return to accept an agreement along the lines of those in the Azores”.
What about PS Madeira?
The public and official discourse is that of having a “good result as a government”. Only “It’s time to change, Madeira” [frase de campanha] does not take off in polls on voting intentions published in the region. So far, Sérgio Gonçalves, leader of the PS-M, has not even come close to Albuquerque and the PSD-M in any of them.
However, there are doubts about the “reality reflected” in the polls, says a party source, because “there are many particulars here that do not exist on the continent. Imagine what an official here will think of the regional government, and who Maybe you’re even thinking about going to vote PS, if you get a call from someone you don’t know and ask you who you’re going to vote for? That’s all I need to say, right?”
There are, the DN found, several reports of “bias” in the questions, of “names not mentioned” in the questionnaires. But none of the “cases”, and some even published on social networks, were the subject of a complaint to the competent authorities.
The big expectation is the result that Sérgio Gonçalves can achieve in September: hold or lose. Winning the elections and removing the PSD from the regional government “looks like a difficult scenario from this distance, but we are still in June,” a party source vents. In other words, “Or a lot will change by then [às eleições] or nothing changes and… look, just wait for Paulo [Cafôfo] come here in 2026 after leaving government [atualmente é secretário de Estado das Comunidades] and run” for the regional government.
But, another party source adds, “you have to understand what Ventura is here to do. It’s the chance for Democrats to unite against the far right.”
In statements from DN, the PS-M leader had already considered that the possibility of an agreement, “whatever it may be”, between PSD-M and Chega “is too dangerous, it would represent the PSD’s blindness to power, whose aim is simply to serve customers, without looking at resources. We cannot allow democracy to be called into question, which would be a historic setback”.
The “threat” could lead to the remaining PSD-M opposition parties [e ao Chega] consider the possibility of a post-electoral coalition to clamp down on the “extreme right” in the government of Madeira.
Élvio Sousa, parliamentary leader of the JPP (Juntos Pelo Povo), has already admitted in statements to DN this possibility, a “possible agreement that wants to be transparent, and in the eyes of everyone” that would remove the burden of finding solutions takes on issues that are important to be resolved.
Joaquim Sousa, of the PAN, acknowledged that the party is “available to consider this solution as a hypothesis as long as there is a change in strategy, a serious administrative alternative”.
The BE forwarded comments “for later” while the PCP deemed it “inopportune” to make public statements.
Among the liberals, who are “neither left nor right,” there is an “ideological” problem: what to do if Albuquerque doesn’t win with a majority? The dilemma is easy to explain. Madeira’s liberals are highly critical of the PSD-M, its governance and what was past and would “hardly” understand that Lisbon would come up with the “indication” of a post-election “support” that the Albuquerque government would retain. What is the fear of “Lisboa”? That “support” for the PS, post-election, which could remove the PSD-M, could be “disapproved” by voters on the continent.
In the scenario map, according to a party source, there are two that would be “acceptable”: the first, that Albuquerque win with a majority – would avoid “all trouble”; the second, that the PS, if it can form a government with parliamentary support, “excludes PCP and BE” – two red lines from IL, next to Chega.
Source: DN
