It’s an unprecedented scenario in the past two years: the set of parties on the right is already worth more than the sum of the left, according to the latest Aximage survey for DN, JN and TSF. More than the growth of the PSD (30.9%), it is the wear and tear of the PS (34.5%) that contributes to this virtual scenario, where the two main parties are less than four points apart. Chega remains isolated in third place (8.9%) and Iniciativa Liberal in fourth place (6.7%), with BE (3.8%) and CDU (3.2%) already at a distance. PAN (3%), Free (2.1%) and CDS (1.9%) follow.
Eight months after winning the parliamentary elections by an absolute majority, the Socialists lost just over one percentage point from July, and seven months when compared to January. Rising cost of living and government action to deal with it will help explain erosion. As we revealed last Friday, the solution found for pensions, for example, especially among the elderly population, is great. And this disillusionment is also apparent from the voting intentions: the PS is still ahead of the PSD among respondents aged 65 and older, but the difference has gone from nine to only three points.
stronger right
Thus António Costa would not only be unable to renew his absolute majority now, but his margin to form a majority would disappear. A hypothetical apparatus with the entire parliamentary left would be worth about 44 percentage points right now (far from 51 in January), three less than the three most right-wing parties, which are now worth about 47 points (41 in January). the last legislator). If the PAN were added to the left and the CDS to the right, the latter would continue to have an advantage (two points). It is no small feat: it has never happened again in this barometer series, i.e. since July 2020.
If we compare the current results with the previous barometer (July), there are two more parties down, but at very different levels. Despite losing 1.3 points, Chega manages to maintain third place and is nearly two points above their January result. And it shows strength in the northern, central and southern regions of the country. The scenario is darker for BE: it loses almost two points (one compared to the legislature) and is only a tenth above the CDU and PAN, achieving its best result in the metropolitan region of Lisbon.
Liberals on the rise
On the rise, and next to Luís Montenegro’s PSD, is the liberal initiative, especially compared to the last election act (it wins almost two points). And the trend towards more commitment in the big cities is confirmed: in Porto and Lisbon, the liberals would become the third party.
Still with regard to the geographical spread and specifically the struggle between the two largest parties, this barometer shows that the Social Democrats joined the central region in the north, which they already had (although here the victory is now by a narrow tenth ). Socialists stand out in metropolitan areas. That was already the case in Lisbon, but now they have strong leadership in Porto.
Liberal leader is the only one above the waterline
The liberal João Cotrim de Figueiredo is the sole survivor of the wave of negative evaluations of party leaders. It is in first place, with a positive balance of six points. António Costa sinks, as does his government and his party, while Luís Montenegro remains a point below the waterline, without irritation, but also without enthusiasm. But as for the rejection, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, no one has defeated the communist Jerónimo de Sousa.
The PCP Secretary General even improves slightly from the July barometer, but has a negative balance of 44 points. Even among those who vote for the CDU, about a quarter give it a negative rating. His teammate at the bottom of the table, André Ventura (31 point negative balance), does not have the same problem: the percentage of Chega voters who give him a negative note is a remnant.
Analyzing the different segments into which the sample is divided, it is clear that the communist reaches the maximum rejection in the metropolitan region of Lisbon, while the right-wing radical sinks to the bottom in Porto. And that both are criticized in particular by older voters (in all cases mentioned, they are over 60% of negative ratings).
championship of indifference
When analyzing the results of the only leader with a positive balance, João Cotrim de Figueiredo, it is clear that this is also due in large part to the relative indifference with which he is judged: 56% of those polled rate him as either if “so-so” or not at all doesn’t even give an opinion. But the Liberal isn’t even the worst in the indifference championship. The leader is Rui Tavares (64%), from Livre, followed by Nuno Melo (61%), from CDS and Inês Sousa Real (57%), from PAN.
Luís Montenegro faces a similar problem as 54% do not have a good or bad opinion about the Social Democrat. When the responses of the different age groups are analyzed, it appears that the best result of the PSD leader is in the over-65s (both in the percentage of positive evaluations and in the positive balance of nine points). The socialist rival, who has always been the great champion of the elderly, has a setback: António Costa’s balance among retirees is 14 negatives and these are also the ones that give him the most negative ratings (46%).
When the angle changes to geography, Luís Montenegro achieves a positive balance in the northern and central regions, and the worst results in the metropolitan areas of Porto and Lisbon (negative balance of ten points). But António Costa doesn’t smile, even in the big cities, because that’s where he also has his worst results (negative balance of 17 points).
DATA SHEET
The poll was conducted by Aximage for the DN, TSF and JN, with the aim of evaluating the opinion of the Portuguese on topics related to current political affairs. The fieldwork took place between 21 and 24 September 2022 and 810 interviews were conducted among people over 18 years old living in Portugal. A quota sample, obtained through a gender, age, and region (NUTSII) cross matrix, was performed from the known universe, rebalanced by gender, age group, and education. For a probability sample of 810 interviews, the maximum standard deviation of a proportion is 0.017 (ie a “margin of error” – at 95% – of 3.44%). Study responsibility: Aximage Comunicação e Imagem, Lda., under the technical direction of Ana Carla Basílio.
Source: DN
