The virtual social-democratic leadership was short-lived. According to Aximage’s most recent poll for DN, JN and TSF, the PS would come first in elections, but far from an absolute majority (28.8%). The PSD would come second (27.7%). Chega solidifies third (13%), but the biggest recovery is that of Bloco de Esquerda which, with Mariana Mortágua, is up almost two points compared to last April’s projection (8%), moving away from the Liberals, who continue to lose (5.2%). Followed by PAN (3.8%) and CDU (3.2%), both falling, Livre (2.7%) and, at the bottom of the table, CDS (1.1%).
Looking at the “margin of error” of the poll, what is being recorded is basically a technical tie. The two largest parties, at least since last January’s barometer, when the difference started to become almost irrelevant, have been battling for leadership. To the advantage of the socialists, because the social democrats were in first place only once last April and by barely three tenths. Now they are one point ahead of the socialists.
No reason to smile
When other calculations are made and qualitative data are added, the balance undoubtedly leans towards the socialist António Costa: he is far ahead of Luís Montenegro in the confidence of the Portuguese, who also consider him more competent, supportive and influential than the social democrat. These are probably the advantages of being in power and gaining a notoriety that cannot be compared to that of an opposition leader who does not even have a seat in parliament.
If the differences compared to the April results are insignificant, then no one has reason to smile compared to the legislation of January 2022. Costa because it loses almost 13 points and no longer has a chance to repeat the absolute majority, Montenegro because despite the crisis in the government it cannot even repeat the result of Rui Rio (it is one and a half points lower).
binding between blocks
Analyzing the hypotheses of a post-election agreement or coalition between the two major parties, the scenario remains highly uncertain, confirming the President of the Republic’s reading of the relative futility of forcing early elections. On the left, the old “device” (with BE and CDU) would add up to 40 points. If we add Livre, it would reach 43. And if it also had the support of the PAN, it would have a total of 46.5 points. It seems like a lot, but these five sides as a whole would still be half a point right.
The bloc led by the PSD would have 47 percentage points (two less than last January). The result of the CDS, which has no parliamentary representation, would be 46. But the real Gordian knot is that, if Chega is removed from the equation (it was Montenegro that said it would not have xenophobic and racist policies and politicians in government), what remains of the right would be reduced to a paltry 34 points (33 without the CDS), which seems insufficient to ensure a stable government (the most recent example is that of Sócrates’ PS, which got 36.6% in 2009, but lasted only two years).
With the so-called Central Bloc (PS and PSD) weakened from the last parliamentary election (now worth 56.5 points, compared to 69 in the January 2022 election), some of the smaller parties are gaining strength. From the beginning, Chega: the current 13% represents a gain of one point over last April and six points over the legislatures.
New breath in BE
André Ventura’s party is the one that is growing the most (and in a solid way, if we take into account the consistency shown in the various polls), but in this barometer the big news is really the resurgence of the Left Bloc. It was in the last days of May that Mariana Mortágua took the lead and, coincidence or not, the BE is on the rise: the current 8% means a gain of almost two points compared to April and almost four points compared to the legislatures (in both cases still with Catarina Martins in coordination).
Furthermore, Mortágua achieves a higher rating than its predecessor: Catarina Martins said goodbye to the barometers with a negative balance of 14 points, Mortágua debuts with zero balance (the difference between positive and negative ratings). It may not seem like much, but there is only one party leader (Rui Rocha, of the Liberal Initiative) with zero balance, the rest are accumulating negative results.
Liberals at a loss
Although, in terms of individual performance, the Liberal leader was first (next to Mortágua), the truth is that his arrival had the opposite effect: since Rui Rocha replaced João Cotrim de Figueiredo, the Liberals have lost more than four percentage points. They now have 5.2%, one point less than last April and only three-tenths above the result of the parliamentary elections.
Portuguese no longer trust Costa or Montenegro
“Neither”. It is the preferred answer of the Portuguese (38%) when asked who they trust more for the position of prime minister, António Costa (PS) or Luís Montenegro (PSD). When asked who is more honest, 53% refuse to voice an opinion, according to the Aximage survey for DN, JN and TSF. Two clear signs of mistrust of the political class. Yet in this game between the two leaders it is the socialist who has the upper hand.
It should be noted that this is the first time, in the three years of this series of barometers, that the answer “neither” wins. Until January 2022, when the opponent was Rui Rio, António Costa always had the primacy of answers. Between July of the same year and last April, the Socialist remained the favourite, this time against Montenegro. In this month of July, facing the new loss of the Prime Minister, and without the Social Democrat taking sides, the Portuguese reject both.
Unlike trust, it is not surprising that the majority of respondents in a poll refuse to award one of the participants the title of “most honest” (53%). Exactly the same thing happened in December 2021, a few weeks before the last parliamentary elections, when the match was played between Costa and Rio (51%). Women are the ones who resist the adjective the most (14 points more than men). Still, and unlike what happened with Rio, Costa has a slight advantage (25%) over Montenegro (22%) among those who agreed to vote.
Negative balance
In this direct comparison between the two party leaders, there is again a result close to a draw, but now with a slight advantage for the opposition: when assessing its performance over the past month, Montenegro registers a negative balance of 19 points (difference between positive and negative notes), while Costa registers a negative balance of 20 points.
In the remaining questions, there is no longer a “margin of error” that raises doubts: António Costa leaves Luís Montenegro well behind when it comes to competence (15 points more), solidarity (18 points more) and, above all, influence (59 points more), although this characteristic has less to do with personal qualities and more with the positions each of them holds.
RESEARCH TECHNICAL SHEET
The survey was conducted by Aximage for DN, TSF and JN, with the aim of gauging the opinion of the Portuguese on issues related to current politics.
The fieldwork took place between 6 and 11 July 2023 and 800 interviews were collected between
over the age of 18 and residing in Portugal.
The response rate was 76.25%.
Sampling was performed based on quotas, obtained through a matrix intersecting gender, age and region (NUTSII), from the known universe, rebalanced by gender, age group and education. The maximum sampling error of this study, for a 95% confidence interval, is +/- 3.5%.
Responsible for the study: Aximage Comunicação e Imagem, Lda., under the technical direction of Ana Carla Basílio.
Source: DN
