Call for today a meeting of the Council of State, on the eve of Rental of António Costa and the meeting of the leaders’ conference that will set the agenda of the delegates when they return from the holidays, the President of the Republic (PR) kicks off a political year that could transform the current parliamentary term into something very different from it was until now.
The meeting of the president’s advisers will actually be the second round another took place on July 21 – and ended earlier than expected because the prime minister had a plane to catch. The agenda should then remain the same (“analysis of the economic, social and political situation in Portugal”), with Marcelo adding in recent days that he also wants to discuss the Ukraine issue.
The president has given the message that next year it will have to be all or nothing in the application of PRR funds. And also decisive for his assessment of Luís Montenegro’s ability to assert himself as an alternative to António Costa. The coexistence between the President of the Republic and the Prime Minister entered a new phase when the head of government refused to dismiss João Galamba as Minister of Infrastructure. Therefore, more actions are expected from Marcelo to weaken the majority – some commentators even think that August’s presidential veto over the decree containing the “More Housing” program was a sign of this. The PS has already replied that it will repeat the approval of the diploma in parliament without changing a comma – but for Marcelo, the story does not stop there.
Due to the president’s veto, the “More Housing” program will be the first topic of the new term in the Assembly of the Republic. Tomorrow, Marcelo’s message justifying his decision will be read to the deputies at a meeting of the Permanent Commission (shortened version of the plenary). After that, the diploma itself would probably have to be discussed in the plenary already scheduled for the next 15th, followed by the vote. If the decree passes without amendment, the PR will have to issue it whether she likes it or not. The same thing happened last May, in the final stages of the euthanasia legislation process.
Preparations for OE2024
the beginning of the new season The 2023-2024 parliamentary period will also be marked by the discussion of the state budget for next year (the government’s proposal will reach the parliament in mid-October, as it does every year) and by preliminary discussions that will serve as a warm-up. for that moment.
The PSD wants to urgently plan its proposal to cut the IRS later this year, even using potentative regulatory mechanisms (forced planning, whether the majority agrees or not) if necessary, and taking advantage of the slack that has arisen in tax collection.
The majority of the PS announced that they would fail the project, but that is not what will lead the Social Democrats to withdraw. In the discussion of OE2024, the PSD will have the opportunity to return to the task – but here already in competition with the government itself: “What we’re about to present is a proposal to relax the IRS, fundamentally targeting the middle classFinance Minister Fernando Medina said in an interview with RTP last July.
Housing (because of the veto of the President of the Republic) and taxation (because of the PSD initiative) should therefore be two relevant issues to mark the beginning of the new parliamentary year. But not alone.
A novelty in September should be the return of bi-weekly debates with the Prime Minister, following the approval in July of the process of reviewing the Rules of Procedure of the Assembly of the Republic.
For example, instead of having the Prime Minister in parliament every two months, the deputies will receive him back every two weeks, as happened between 2008 and 2020 (when Costa and Rio agreed to change the rules and extend the bimonthly periodicity of debates on to take). ).
Four years of elections
Even if there is no prospect of the start of a new election cycle, this in itself would be a powerful tool to intensify the political struggle. But in fact, this election cycle is now really about to begin and so the return of biweekly debates only reinforces this inevitable intensification.
The new election cycle will start in 20 days with the holding of regional elections in Madeira. Opinion polls point to a clear victory for the PSD-CDS coalition, with Miguel Albuquerque reappointed as president of the regional government.
However, if this victory comes without an absolute majority, Albuquerque may be tempted to call up Chega – a situation that will cause undeniable embarrassment for Luís Montenegro on the continent (as the PSD-Chega accord in the Azores embarrassed Rui Rio brought).
Within a year the European elections will already have taken place (May-June 2024) and at that point, depending on the results, the scenario could be completely different, possibly with the socialist majority in crisis or ultimately with the PSD in crisis. if Luís Montenegro didn’t win.
After the European elections in May-June 2024, the regional elections in the Azores will take place in September-October of the same year. The municipal elections will be held one year later (September-October 2025); then, in January 2026, the presidential elections; and in September-October of the same year, at the end of this electoral cycle, the parliamentary elections.
The timetable is therefore clear: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will only be able to determine the next government solution if he determines early elections. When the term comes to an end, you are no longer president at that point.
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SCHEME
Today. Meeting of the State Council.
September 6 (1). Conference of leaders to make agreements, namely the so-called housing package, vetoed by the President of the Republic. In the afternoon meeting of the Standing Committee of the AR.
Sept 6 (2). Speech at 9:00 p.m Rental by António Costa, at the “Socialist Academy”, in Évora.
September 9th. Rentree of the CDS-PP, at the party’s headquarters in Lisbon. Three former leaders (Manuel Monteiro, Paulo Portas and Assunção Cristas) take part to discuss the party’s programmatic renewal, a process led by António Lobo Xavier.
Sept 10 (1). Carlos César, president of the PS, closes the “Socialist Academy” in Évora.
Sept. 10 (2). Rentree of the left block. Mariana Mortágua closes a new edition of “Forum Socialismo” in Viseu.
Sept. 10 (3). Rentree of the PAN, in Oeiras, with the intervention of the only deputy of the party, Inês Sousa Real.
Sept. 10 (4). Fifth and last day, in Fátima, of the “Campus da Liberdade 23”, promoted by Instituto + Liberdade, allied with liberals. Personalities such as Marques Mendes, Carlos Moedas, Cecília Meireles, Paulo Macedo (CEO of CGD), Francisco Assis and Sérgio Sousa Pinto, Maria Luís Albuquerque and Miguel Poiares Maduro will participate. The IL deputy (and former leader of the party) Carlos Guimarães Pinto closes on the 10th.
September 15. First plenary session of the new legislative session in the Assembly of the Republic.
September 24. Regional Elections in Madeira.
Source: DN
