The electoral test for the PSD leader lies in a simple scenario: the PSD/CDS coalition, led by Miguel Albuquerque, does not achieve the ‘desired’ absolute majority.
This possibility, which opens the door to agreements with Chega or IL, immediately creates two embarrassments: one for Montenegro, if Albuquerque again reverses positions. [já admitiu de forma clara um acordo dizendo que “vai depender” do resultados das eleições para dias depois quase dizer o contrário sustentando que não faz “coligações com partidos anti-autonomistas”]; another to Nuno Morna, regional leader of the Liberals, who can “barely,” says an IL source, “behavior to the CDS.” Translation? Allying with the PSD despite ‘destroying’ the entire government of Albuquerque and Jardim. Consequence? At the risk of being reduced “to insignificance”, like the current CDS of Rui Barreto, regional leader.
In the case of Montenegro, any kind of deal struck in Madeira with Chega will have an “immediate” impact on its leadership. And the “immediate” has a linear reading: “We go to the Europeans and the PS sells the idea that the PSD has joined the extreme right,” a social democratic source reaffirms to DN.
Arguments that lead the researcher of the Center for International Studies of ISCTE-IUL Riccardo Marchi to consider that “if the elections in Madeira of September 24, 2023 and the European elections of June 2024 go wrong (both in terms of the election results and in terms of the clarity of the message of the alliances within the Center Right), Luís Montenegro will arrive considerably weakened at the time of the 2026 parliamentary elections.”
But didn’t Albuquerque guarantee that he would not “form coalitions with anti-autonomist parties”? The interpretation, coming from a PSD source, reduces the guarantees of the President of the Regional Government of Madeira to an “illusion and ability” to remove “electoral arguments” from the PS during the campaign, because Chega “is not at all anti- political party’. – autonomy’, how many times ‘Albuquerque repeats it’.
Symptomatic, he emphasizes, is the change in the argument that has become: “Our electorate does not identify with Chega”.
A relevant fact to consider is the fact that the recent survey on voting behavior polls, conducted by the Center for Studies and Opinion Polls and the Research Center of the Institute of Political Studies of the Portuguese Catholic University, shows that 73% of Portuguese as very negative or negative coalitions with Ventura’s party and that 72% of PSD voters say the same. And finally, Chega is seen as extremist and a real danger to democracy.
What about the polls published so far that seem to point to a clear victory for PSD/CDS?
“Not everything that it seems is so,” says a PSD source who recalls that in 2019, for example, one of the last surveys – that of the Portuguese Catholic University for RTP – gave the PS 29% [que obteve 35,76% dos votos]placed BE as the “third political force” with 5% [teve 1,74% e não elegeu nenhum deputado] and “even the PAN could choose” [mas não elegeu, obteve 1,46% dos votos].
Another fact: what will the indecisive people hovering around 14% do? And how many will be abstainers?
This last problem in particular seems to worry PSD Madeira. A high abstention rate, around 47% on average, combined with undecided voters could create a scenario that “we can’t control,” a local source admits.
This is why Albuquerque rewrote Socrates’ theory and also Cavaco’s [o “Ou eu ou o caos”] dramatizing the speech: “If I do not reach an absolute majority and I cannot form a government, I will resign. (…) If you do not vote for this majority, I will leave,” Miguel Albuquerque told Rádio Renascença.
In short: Montenegro’s first challenge lies in the hands of Miguel Albuquerque.
The partner
Nuno Melo, who does not want a “party with an outstretched hand,” has “the perception that the CDS-M, which is autonomous, will not do that.” [aceitará] “I will not appreciate any parties other than the CDS with this answer, which I believe will have an absolute majority in the coalition,” the centrist replied. leader to DN.
And as in Montenegro, the leadership of Nuno Melo, who made Chega his main target, will also be weakened.
Another scenario is already on the table. The regional CDS will reduce its weight in Albuquerque’s next administration. In practice, this means, for example, renouncing the presidency of the Regional Legislative Assembly of Madeira (ALRAM) and/or having two secretariats as is currently the case.
Everything will depend on the results and the number of centrists elected, the DN knows.
The national consequence is obvious: Nuno Melo’s CDS, which will not be involved in the two weeks of the election campaign in Madeira, could be weakened during the first election battle.
The dilemma
The issue is ideological in the party that is “neither left nor right”. What to do if PS-Madeira needs IL to end 47 years of PSD regime? Will it exhibit “CDS-like behavior” and ally with the PSD which it violently criticizes, or will it maintain the “red line” that Nuno Morna, regional leader, emphasized in statements to DN?
“For me, any kind of agreement with the Madeira PSD is a red line. There will be no agreement, neither before nor after the post. It is also possible to govern, and often even better, without absolute majorities,” he declared .
For national liberals, there are two scenarios that would facilitate the solution of the dilemma: the first, that Albuquerque wins with a majority – it would avoid “all problems” –; the second, that the PS, if it can form a government with parliamentary support, “excludes PCP and BE”, two of IL’s red lines, in addition to Chega. “The least of it,” an IL source told DN. And the explanation is simple: the Liberals hope to elect one or two deputies. Rui Rocha comes out on top.
The ambition
There are no secrets. Ventura admits that “negotiations” have been held with Albuquerque and that “a government has been formed,” guaranteeing that “he will not accept another agreement in the same sense as the one in the Azores.”
And the strategy [as sondagens apontam para a eleição de dois ou três deputados] he also has no big secrets for the campaign: he is ‘opposition’ and ‘the alternative to the current PSD/CDS government’.
Ventura was very clear in recent statements to DN about what he wants from these elections: “Elect an important parliamentary group and remove the absolute majority from the PSD”. With or without a deal, Ventura will benefit from the election of delegates.
Left
Expectations at the PS are not high, despite talk of the intention of an ‘excellent result’ [todas as sondagens apontam para a redução do grupo parlamentar]but it will have “grown” after Thursday’s debate on RTP Madeira between PSD, PS, PCP and JPP, which “finally” revealed a “repulsive” and “without answers” president of the regional government, a source says to DN socialist .
Costa neither wins nor loses. This has been the case in the PS since 1976. It is different with regional leaders [esta já é a décima] which are ‘burned’ after each election defeat, as one socialist source puts it, as if ‘losing elections is something new’.
BE, which lost almost half of the votes in the last regional elections [não elegeu ninguém] now wants a return to parliament through the big door: the third political force. However, from the studies published so far, this third level appears to be safe in the hands of JPP. Even the election of a deputy is a victory for Mariana Mortágua.
The regional PCP, which according to polls is at risk of losing its only deputy, could leave Paulo Raimundo with his first defeat. Enforcing it will be a victory for the Secretary General.
Source: DN
