There are still more than two years to go until the presidential elections. No candidates have been declared, only desires or intentions. And in many cases silence. But there are already favorites that stand out from the rest. Further to the right, Marques Mendes (20%), according to research by Aximage for DN, JN and TSF, will only have an open path if Pedro Passos Coelho (20%) leaves. Further to the left, Guterres is the most popular (34%), but he is leader of the United Nations and there is no indication that he wants to shorten his mandate, which does not end until 2026. And if so, it is Ana Gomes (19%) who stands out in the socialist field, compared to personalities such as Mário Centeno (12%) or Augusto Santos Silva (8%).
The tests for this study were conducted last week. But the Portuguese were not asked who they would vote for. Because the results of a poll on voting intentions would be of little use in a list with multiple candidates from social democratic and socialist circles. Ultimately, as almost always (but not always), each of the two major parties will throw their support behind a single candidate. This study therefore separately tested a list of names on the left and a list of names on the right, to try to understand who the Portuguese’s favorites are at the moment. Names mentioned in the public space as presidential candidates, even though it is known that many seem to have no interest in presenting a candidacy.
“First time” request
It is in the area further to the right that the competition seems to be fiercer at the moment, with two names standing out: Marques Mendes, who launched a candidacy of sorts on prime-time television at the end of August; and Pedro Passos Coelho, who has maintained maximum discretion regarding a possible return to active politics. They are both at 20%, although the former Cavaco and Durão minister and now commentator has an edge on decimals.
This is the case when the question is asked to all Portuguese. If you analyze the results only among PSD voters, you can see that the former Prime Minister alone will not be the party’s candidate if he does not want to be: in this fundamental segment for a more right-wing presidential candidate, Passos has an advantage of 21 percentage points over Mendes and 24 points above Rui Rio, who is third on the list of favorites.
Rio leads in the northern region
The former mayor of Porto and until last year leader of the PSD is a ‘candidate’ with a clear territorial demarcation: in the Northern region he leads only the list of favorites on the right, in the Porto metropolitan area he is technically both names are stronger, but from the Douro the results are quite weak. Interestingly, where Rio is less attractive (center and south), it is André Ventura who takes third place.
If you try to understand which of the right-wing candidates could be more inclusive, and assume that the elections are won by the center, Marques Mendes is the most promising candidate, as he has a nine-point lead over Rio and 19 points over Passos among Socialist voters. On the contrary, the survey shows that the latter is more likely to join the electorate of Chega and the Liberal Initiative than its main rival.
After Guterres, Ana Gomes
In the area further to the left, if António Guterres wanted to (or could, since his mandate as UN Secretary General does not expire until the end of 2026, a few months after the presidential elections), there would be little doubt: he is the clear favorite of all Portuguese (34%) for a candidacy and wins in almost all segments of the sample. Among socialist voters, those who in principle count the most even increase their lead (40%) over the rest.
However, Guterres is a candidate that is unlikely to materialize. And when you analyze the team behind you, there is no doubt who stands out: Ana Gomes, who ran against Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa without PS support in 2021, finished a solid second place, with a percentage almost equal to that of the two main right-wing favorites (19%), putting Mário Centeno at seven. points and, most importantly, Augusto Santos Silva on 11 points. The socialist succeeds in staying ahead of Guterres among the younger electorate (18 to 35 years).
Santos Silva is low on gas
Remember that the current President of the Assembly of the Republic is almost a kind of pre-designated candidate by the socialist ruling elite. Or, at least, that’s how it’s treated in the media and political space. And its results, at least in this study, do not match the ambition. It does not exceed 8% and is even behind Mário Centeno, the governor of the Bank of Portugal (who ends his term in 2025, just in time to formalize a candidacy, if that is his intention).
But there is a championship in which Santos Silva despite everything manages to win a draw with Ana Gomes: in the Socialist voter segment they both score 15%, two points more than Centeno. The remaining good news is again for Ana Gomes: if the aim is to seek votes from the right, the socialist has a big lead over Santos Silva among the PSD and liberal voters (and in this segment she even beats Guterres again) and loses they only Chega; if the idea is to seek votes further from the left, she will again be the best-placed socialist, even if she loses to Francisco Louçã among the blocists and to João Ferreira among the communists.
Sample segments
Gender imbalances, only on the right side: The bond between Mendes and Passos is broken when the men’s and women’s favorites are split: Mendes is favored by women (five points more than among men), the very same difference that makes Passos a more “masculine” candidate. The choices on the left are quite homogeneous: the largest deviation is for Guterres, with two points more among the men.
Pensioners punish former prime minister: In terms of age groups, Passos Coelho’s biggest lead over Marques Mendes is in the 35 to 49 age group. But the second compensates for this with a big advantage among the elderly (perhaps they remember the pension freezes and cuts during the days of the Troika). Among the youngest there is more balance and a surprise: Ventura shares first place with Passos.
Ana Gomes champion of the youngest: The unanimity around Guterres only breaks down among the youngest (18 to 34 years), who prefer Ana Gomes. Among the elderly (65 years or older), a segment that is more important than the others when it comes to votes, Santos Silva remains with the former ambassador, who has only one advantage. Centeno and Ferreira achieve better results among young people and Louçã stands out among the age groups from 50 to 64 years.
Class division between Mendes and Passos: When the angle of the analysis concerns social classes, there is a clear division into the rightmost choices: Marques Mendes leads in the two segments with the lowest incomes; Pedro Passos Coelho in the two who have higher incomes. On the left, the same thing happens in social classes as in other types of segments: António Guterres is always in first place, Ana Gomes always in second place.
DATA SHEET
Opinion poll conducted by Aximage for DN/JN/TSF. Universe: Individuals over 18 years of age living in Portugal. Quota sample, obtained from a matrix crossing gender, age and region. The sample had 804 effective interviews: 696 online interviews and 108 telephone interviews; 380 men and 424 women; 181 between 18 and 34 years, 210 between 35 and 49 years, 225 between 50 and 64 years and 188 for people over 65; Norte 281, Centro 177, Sul e Ilhas 123, AM Lisboa 223. Technique: Online application (CAWI) of a structured questionnaire to a panel of individuals meeting the predetermined quota for individuals aged 18 years or older; telephone interviews (CATI) from the same subuniverse questionnaire used by Aximage, filling the same quotas for those aged 50 and over and others. Fieldwork took place between September 14 and 18, 2023. Response rate: 71.52%. The maximum sampling error of this study, for a 95% confidence interval, is +/- 3.5%. Responsibility for the research: Aximage, under the technical direction of Ana Carla Basílio.
Source: DN
