“The problem with trying to see electoralism in these measures is that in reality there will be relatively little time for those who benefit from the measures to feel like they are making a difference.”, ISCTE economics professor Ricardo Paes Mamede explains to DN. ‘It’s actually still two months until the elections. One thing is the IUC [Imposto Único de Circulação], which has a very big impact. It was a very controversial measure, which plagued many people. For all other measures, unless they were symbolic measures with a very significant impact, it is very difficult to say that they were conceived and taken with the elections in mind, because the effects are relatively modest and the period in which these effects will be felt will be felt it is also modest,” the economist concludes.
The special debate on the 2024 state budget (OE2024) starts tomorrow, and will culminate on November 29 with the final global vote on the document. On October 31, the general approval of OE2024 led to protests on the opposition benches and several days later hundreds of people took to the streets to challenge a specific measure: the increase in the IUC for cars before 2007. The Minister of Finance, Fernando Medina defended the measure tooth and nail and guaranteed that this tax increase would never exceed 25 euros per year. However, over the years the increases can amount to more than 1000%, for both petrol and diesel cars.
However, the deadline for submitting proposals for changes to OE2024 was reached on November 14. That Tuesday, Medina also guaranteed that “the government supports the proposal it has made regarding a maximum increase of 25 euros per year” in the IUC.
However, of the hundred proposals put forward by the Socialist Parliamentary Group to change the OE2024, one of them both caused controversy in the various parties and was welcomed, in a mix of vague, persistent and hopeful criticism: the increase of the IUC would front and the decision would be up to the PS, which, because it has an absolute majority in the hemisphere, has the power to approve the proposed change. Between the choice to embody the measure in the state budget, to adopt it in general and to drop it, there was a sequence of events that may or may not have influenced the outcome of this story.
The fall of the government
On November 7, the Prime Minister, António Costa, resigned, justifying his decision with a reference to himself in a statement from the Attorney General’s Office stating that he was being investigated by the Supreme Court in a case of corruption related with lithium. and hydrogen, which would affect some people around you and within the government. Three days later, the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, would announce the dissolution of Parliament and the call for parliamentary elections for March 2024.
Since the approval process for OE2024 is still ongoing, and now that the discussion is taking place in this specialty, there are budgetary measures that could give visibility to the PS parliamentary session, since the absolute majority of socialist deputies decide the fate of the public accounts will determine for next year, whatever. The government will emerge from the March 10 elections.
At this stage, it is necessary to analyze the proposed changes in OE2024, to understand whether they are measures that anticipate the upcoming election campaign and lead to a favorable outcome, or whether they are aimed at the country’s problems. One idea does not necessarily cancel out the other.
“Right now it seems that the Socialist Party’s candidate, who is in the best position to win the internal elections, is someone who has not even been in government and will therefore not be able to claim for himself on the progress that has been made recently.”, argues Ricardo Paes Mamede, in a reference to the former Minister of Infrastructure and Housing, Pedro Nuno Santos, who stood as a candidate to lead the PS and succeed António Costa. The other candidates for the position are current Interior Minister José Luís Carneiro and Socialist leader Daniel Adrião, who entered the race this week.
“Apart from the IUC, I cannot think of any measure that would have this impact” by rallying the electorate to the PS’s sideconcludes the economics professor.
What the PS wants
When looking for measures that could cause undecided voters to wink at the PS, economists and political scientists have a heterogeneous view. There are more than a hundred proposals, most of which pass by more or less inattentive citizens. One of them provides for “progressive withholding tax rates for the self-employed,” meaning there are different IRS rebates for workers who spend green vouchers depending on how much they receive, moving away from the flat 25% rate that currently applies. in force. Even though this measure could benefit those who potentially have a lower income and an unstable work context, has this resolution still reached the majority of people?
In addition to this proposed amendment to OE2024, there is one for the introduction of the deduction of domestic service costs within the framework of the IRS reporting obligations, something that socialists “consider relevant not only for the fulfillment of the Decent Work Agenda, but of course also for the consolidation of fiscal justice instruments,” said statements by Socialist parliamentary leader Eurico Brilhante Dias, available on the PS page.
Similarly, the suggestion to place meal cards at the same ceiling, in terms of transaction costs, could be included on this list, by putting them on par with debit cards. Or the increase in the travel allowance for around 13 thousand displaced scholarship students, which rises from 250 euros to 400 euros.
Electoralism and protest
“The big problem is not electoralism, it is the numbness of civil society in terms of organized defense groups or groups that quickly organize themselves”professor at the Higher Institute of Social and Political Sciences (ISCSP) at the University of Lisbon, José Adelino Maltez, told DN, for whom “these types of movements are very rare”, which brought together hundreds of people in several cities to protest against the increase in IUC.
“I think the main Portuguese fiscal policy treats the country as if it were a sleeping beauty”, concludes the political scientist. “And I maintain that I do not qualify this as electoralism. All political systems, including the opposition government, are black boxes with an input arrow of demands and another output arrow that responds to these inputs into the system. It is a game of “Inputs-outputs. And the democratic system is made entirely of inputs-outputs. What Portugal lacks are pressure groups from civil society. They are inorganic. And that is why those in power naturally realize that there is a gap is where they can get access because there is no adequate organization of the requirements,” he argues.
When the rise of the IUC was rejected by the PS, the opposition revolted, claiming it was an electoral maneuver. When the IUC increase was widely approved, the voices against it were similar. This was the position of the PSD, Chega and IL. So what has the PS done with OE2024 to roll back some measures and add others?
“I call this, in terms of cold political analysis, a kind of politicization of the budget,” Adelino Maltez continues. “That is, the budget had not passed through the political filters of the PS and now they used the political filters, using their internal information channels, namely local and regional and trade union demands. So there’s a warning here: be careful, don’t do that. make a budget without coming here first to debate with us a little. We are the politicians. That is why the budget has been depoliticized. And of course the PS is now demonstrating this,” he concludes.
“Principles” and “opportunism”
“The main problem was the energy transition,” João Duque, professor at the Higher Institute of Economics and Management of the University of Lisbon (ISEG), reminds DN of the Finance Minister’s arguments in favor of increasing the IUC in previous cars. to enforce. 2007, which are therefore considered more polluting. “It is a sacred principle by which we are going to force taxpayers to change the paradigm and there is no way to start slowly and increase the pressure on people to really change,” ironizes the economist.
For João Duque, “she [o Governo] they knew this 6 months ago, 5 months ago, 3 months ago. This hasn’t changed, Portugal hasn’t changed, they haven’t discovered that the Portuguese all bought old cars after all. No, nothing has changed. Portugal is the same. And therefore, of the two, one: that they have to change now is because their principles do not exist, they have no principles whatsoever. And he will go to the elections defending these principles and saying this: you’re all wrong, but it’s a climate emergency. We should have changed cars years ago. There is no tomorrow. Or maybe it’s Greta’s speech” Thunberg, says João Duque, referring to the Swedish activist.
For the professor of economics, “This is what drives citizens away from politics, because it is clear that there is opportunism here”analyze. “If there had not been this crisis with the resignation of the Prime Minister and the government, does anyone believe they would change? They wouldn’t do that.”he decides.
Source: DN
