According to the Aximage survey for DN, JN and TSF, this is a possibility that the majority of Portuguese (52%) consider negative. But it is important to note that it is 28% positive and another 17% indifferent.
Even though a large share of those who vote for the PS and PSD share the idea that Chega’s influence would be negative, the details of the figures show a different level of concern: among socialists this is 66%, among social democrats only 44 %. And there are 38% of Luís Montenegro voters who understand that this would even be positive. If we add the 18% for whom this issue is indifferent, we reach a majority of 56% of Social Democrats for whom Chega’s influence or participation in a government is not inconvenient.
Taking into account how voters of the two main parties assess this issue, the results regarding who the main opponents will be in this campaign will be better understood. If Pedro Nuno Santos is the next leader of the PS (and he is the favorite to win the internal battle), the Portuguese suspect that he will point more to André Ventura (44%) than to Montenegro (40%). In the case of the PSD leader, the focus will be mainly on his socialist rival (47%), rather than on the leader of Chega (38%).
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DATA SHEET
Opinion poll conducted by Aximage for DN/JN/TSF. Universe: Individuals over 18 years of age living in Portugal. Quota sample, obtained from a matrix crossing gender, age and region. The sample had 802 effective interviews: 675 online interviews and 127 telephone interviews; 389 men and 413 women; 172 between 18 and 34 years, 199 between 35 and 49 years, 206 between 50 and 64 years and 225 for people over 65; Norte 257, Centro 165, Sul e Ilhas 142, AM Lisboa 238. Technique: Online application (CAWI) of a structured questionnaire to a panel of individuals meeting the predetermined quota for people aged 18 years or older; telephone interviews (CATI) from the same subuniverse questionnaire used by Aximage, filling the same quotas for those aged 50 and over and others. Fieldwork took place between November 18 and 23, 2023. Response rate: 68.68%. The maximum sampling error of this study, for a 95% confidence interval, is +/- 3.5%. Responsibility for the research: Aximage, under the technical direction of Ana Carla Basílio.
Source: DN
