The political crisis and the lack of a leader have not done the PS any harm. In fact, according to a survey by Aximage for DN, JN and TSF, the Socialists strengthen first place (32.9%) with a six-point lead over the PSD (26.7%), which is also growing, confirming the idea that, when elections take place on the horizon, the central bloc gains strength. But there is one party that is immune to the lure of a useful vote: Chega is rising again (16.2%) and is now worth more than twice as much as Bloco de Esquerda (6.9%). Followed by the Liberal Initiative (5%), the CDU (3.2%), the PAN (2.9%), Livre (2%) and the CDS (1.5%).
The PS’s result is a paradox: it achieves the best percentage of the year (out of a total of five polls) a few weeks after a judicial investigation that caused a political earthquake that led to the resignation of the government, the announcement of dissolution of the Assembly of the Republic and to schedule elections for March 10. And while the internal struggle to find a new leader still continues. Rather than alienating voters, the crisis appears to have acted as a recovery of sorts. The coming months will show whether the phenomenon is temporary or permanent.
It is important to remember that a survey is not a prediction about the future. It is a portrait of what has already happened. In this case, the fieldwork took place between 18 and 23 November, meaning that, after the initial shock of Operation Influencervoters already knew that the investigating judge had dismissed the suspicions of corruption and released all suspects. Just as they had heard António Costa accuse the President of the Republic of causing an “irresponsible crisis” (Marcelo, according to the Portuguese, is at an all-time low).
A Pyrrhic victory
Whatever the reasons, the truth is that the photo shows the Socialists stronger (even without a leader) compared to the October poll (they rose by four points), but much more vulnerable than in the 2022 parliamentary elections (they now have minus nine points). ).
If these results were to be repeated in the elections, we would be looking at a Pyrrhic victory, as the parliamentary majority would be right-wing (the various parties in this bloc have a total of 49 points). A scenario opposite to that of 2015, in which the PSD/CDS coalition, then led by Passos Coelho, won the elections, but the parliamentary majority was left-wing.
Luís Montenegro has already said (and repeated) that he will only become Prime Minister if he wins the elections, even though he refuses to commit the party to this ‘personal’ decision. In fact, this survey does not show the best prospects: even though the PSD has grown by almost two points compared to October (curiously enough, the same two that the Liberals lost), it remains almost three points lower than in the last legislative period.
A dated portrait
It is worth emphasizing again that this is a political portrait of the past. And in the case of Luís Montenegro, this could be very relevant, since the fieldwork took place before last weekend’s congress, and therefore before promises such as the “minimum pension” of 820 euros or the reduction of the IRS to the eighth. step, that is, for the entire middle class. Proposals that marked the political media agenda of recent days.
But there are more indicators in this survey that consolidate the feeling of uncertainty about a government solution. In particular, a question about the time at which voters decide who to vote for: about a quarter (23%) say they will only make a final decision ‘later after the elections’. However, if we look at the other side of the coin, there is a part of the electorate that stands out for making its decision ‘long before the elections’: Chega.
In the last parliamentary elections, the so-called central bloc (PS and PSD) totaled 69 percentage points. Since then, and in successive surveys, it has lost its luster. In last October’s survey it was already worth 16 percentage points less. But the certainty that elections will happen was enough to reverse the trend. It is the power of the so-called useful vote, which always poses a threat to parties to the left of the PS or to parties to the right of the PSD. The exception that proves the rule is Chega (16.2%).
The power of Chega
The centripetal force of the central bloc does not seem to be enough to influence André Ventura’s party, the only one of the ‘small’ parties that has risen in the October survey (before the crisis), and, most importantly, it is the party that is growing most concerning the 2022 parliamentary elections: there would be nine percentage points more and a parliamentary group with about three dozen deputies.
If this result is confirmed by the polls, Chega would become an inevitable party for a right-wing government seeking a parliamentary majority. Especially since the two most likely partners of Luís Montenegro’s PSD do not have the best prospects at the moment: Rui Rocha’s Liberal Initiative seems in the survey to already suffer from the consequences of the useful vote and could at best aspire to a repeat of the result of the last parliamentary elections (5%); while Nuno Melo’s CDS does not find the formula to avoid irrelevance and would achieve the same result as in January 2022 (1.5%) and probably out of Parliament. The centrists’ best guarantee of survival seems to be an alliance with the PSD before the elections.
26%
The percentage of those who participated in this survey and will abstain is much lower than that of the last parliamentary elections: 49%. But we must take into account that abstention in the elections was largely due to those registered abroad: only 174 thousand (11%) of the more than one and a half million people voted.
44%
If the elderly are crucial for winning elections, then the PS currently has a clear advantage over the PSD: 15 percentage points more (44% against 29% of voting intentions). Chega ranks third in this segment of the sample, but it appears that the older the voters are, the lower their support for Ventura’s party.
Elderly with PS
As for abstention, this survey (like the previous one) shows that the older the voters, the higher the participation: 40% of people aged 18 to 34 will abstain; in the case of the over-65s this would be only 12%, making them a crucial segment for those who have the ambition to succeed.
Gender differences
Following the example of the October survey, the PS is the most balanced party in terms of gender (the results are almost equal between men and women). The PSD still has a feminine slant (five points more than between the two), while Chega is clearly more masculine (eight points more than between the two).
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DATA SHEET
Opinion poll conducted by Aximage for DN/JN/TSF. Universe: Individuals over 18 years of age living in Portugal. Quota sample, obtained from a matrix crossing gender, age and region. The sample had 802 effective interviews: 675 online interviews and 127 telephone interviews; 389 men and 413 women; 172 between 18 and 34 years, 199 between 35 and 49 years, 206 between 50 and 64 years and 225 for people over 65; Norte 257, Centro 165, Sul e Ilhas 142, AM Lisboa 238. Technique: Online application (CAWI) of a structured questionnaire to a panel of individuals meeting the predetermined quota for people aged 18 years or older; telephone interviews (CATI) from the same subuniverse questionnaire used by Aximage, filling the same quotas for those aged 50 and over and others. Fieldwork took place between November 18 and 23, 2023. Response rate: 68.68%. The maximum sampling error of this study, for a 95% confidence interval, is +/- 3.5%. Responsibility for the research: Aximage, under the technical direction of Ana Carla Basílio.
Source: DN
