The CDS-PP’s disastrous result in the 2022 parliamentary elections – which left it without representation in the Assembly of the Republic for the first time, with only 1.6% of the vote – would mean that centrists would be unable to to elect more than one deputy to the Democratic Alliance lists, if the PSD would only report on what happened on January 30, 2022. This should not happen, as evidenced by negotiations between the two sides, which have not yet been concluded. at least a centrist parliamentary group. This would imply two elected officials, although four could be installed if there was major electoral success.
Factors such as the history of the CDS in pre-electoral coalitions and post-electoral agreements that supported the executives of Durão Barroso, Santana Lopes and Passos Coelho, and the increase in ‘electoral efficiency’ with the sum of the parties’ votes – allowing the The phenomenon of 89,000 votes for the centrists that have not yet been used to elect anyone less than two years ago is being emphasized by the two partners to justify a more advantageous agreement for the weakest link of the new Democratic Alliance.
The only centrist deputy who would qualify if the balance of power between the two parties were reflected in previous parliamentary elections – as often happens in these negotiations – would be part of the list of the centre-right coalition for Lisbon. And yet the country would only rank 16th, within the limit of the 17 deputies elected to the capital in 2015 by the Portugal à Frente coalition. In the other major circles, the relationship between the parties – which will go to the polls together on March 10, 2024, with independent personalities alongside them – would leave the CDS representatives far from any chance of reaching the hemisphere, relegated to 24th place in Porto (where Passos Coelho and Paulo Portas managed to pick only 17th), 16th in Aveiro and 22nd in Braga. This would imply that the Democratic Alliance would choose all the deputies from Aveiro’s circle, which does not seem possiblebut in Braga even that would not be enough, as the Minho circle has only 19 mandates, meaning the CDS would have only the third replacement.
Even the historically weak vote of the CDS in 2022, while Rodrigues dos Santos and the parliamentary group were at war, would prevent António Costa’s absolute majority.
That the PSD’s national advisors do not ‘question greater generosity’ contributes to Luís Montenegro raising the bar as he made it clear that he will not become Prime Minister if he is not the one with the most votes at the parliamentary elections. In a scenario of intense dispute with the PS of Pedro Nuno Santos, the contribution of the CDS could be decisive. The latest opinion polls show the centrists with a voting intention of around 2%, which would make a return to Parliament on their own lists far more uncertain than impossible.
Another argument is that of electoral efficiency, in the sense that even the historically weak vote of the CDS in 2022, with then leader Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos and the former parliamentary group at war, would have prevented António Costa’s absolute majority if their votes were against. that of the PSD. In all, assuming that no voter failed to vote because his party was in coalition with another, five of the 120 Socialist deputies would be left standing on São Bento’s doorstep. This would give the centre-right a new mandate in the circles of Leiria, Vila Real and Bragança, where the PS would no longer be the most popular. They would also get a replacement for the Socialists in Coimbra and Portalegre, and one for Chega in Porto.
However, the PPM announced that it had refused to join the Democratic Alliance under “humiliating circumstances”. For his part, the leader of the Liberal Initiative, Rui Rocha, reiterated that his party will go to the vote alone, and André Ventura criticized “a certain desperation” on the part of the PSD to try to block the growth of Chega, whose he assured that this is not possible with “parties that are dead”.
Source: DN
