February 4, 2024. The Azores will be called to the polls for the first early elections in the history of regional autonomy. An election that pits the current President of the Azores government, José Manuel Bolieiro, against his predecessor, Vasco Cordeiro. An election that promises to contaminate next month’s national elections.
Let’s go in parts: The mandate was interrupted with the leadership of the legislature’s last budget. The regional government, based on a PSD, CDS-PP and PPM coalition, lost the support of Chega and the Liberal Initiative (IL). It was the secession of the united right and the unprecedented government solution that brought together five parties to end 24 years of PS power, despite the Socialists coming first in the 2020 elections.
If the leader of the regional PSD, José Manuel Bolieiro, renews the alliance with Chega, Luís Montenegro’s attempts at demarcation will fail and the PS will acquire a political asset of enormous value to take action against the specter of the far right.
This is one of the doubts that will characterize suffrage in the Azores: how will voters react to the early end of the legislative term? The regional governing parties are taking advantage of this moment to victimize themselves and place the burden on their former parliamentary partners. PSD, CDS-PP and PPM are running for elections together, a pre-election alliance that has gone down badly with certain social democratic factions. Within the PSD there is fear of losing votes on the largest island, São Miguel, because CDS-PP and PPM are associated with a discourse that focuses too much on the islands of Terceira and Corvo respectively. This is one of the most important peculiarities for understanding the political situation in the Azores: the dynamics of each island are fundamental to the political balance of power.
For its part, Chega recalls that it only abstained from voting on the budget and even showed openness to negotiate the feasibility of a second document, if Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa had not opted for the dissolution of parliament. Chega is the only power whose electoral growth is taken for granted (it elected two of the 57 deputies in 2020).
In the Azores, the wall between PSD and Chega has long been broken and relations between the two do not appear to have been affected by the outcome of the last budget. At the time, Chega’s deputy, José Pacheco, justified his abstention with the position of CDS-PP and PPM and warned that in the future he only planned to negotiate with the PSD.
The case of IL is different as the party formally tore up the parliamentary influence agreement, voted against the budget and rejected all negotiations with the PSD. Liberal MP Nuno Barata is seen in the region as the main person responsible for the fall of the government. It remains to be seen whether this will be seen as a merit or a flaw.
On the left, the growth trend from the right is reducing the PS’s room for maneuver. The socialists will try to concentrate the useful votes, traumatized by a possible repeat in 2024 of the insignificant victory of 2020. The logic is to end the period of socialist rule, in particular the eight years of Vasco Cordeiro (2012-2020). present it as a period of socialist rule. A time of stability that can only be guaranteed by the PS. During his time in opposition, Vasco Cordeiro made an attempt to adapt his own image as a modest leader close to the population, in contrast to the presidential figure he had cultivated over the years.
The problem for the left is that the PCP is losing its expression in the Azores (it is no longer even represented in the Regional Assembly) and that BE can hardly elect more than the two deputies it managed in 2020, despite the Mortágua The bloc’s effect and results in the Azores are historically associated with the party’s moment at the national level.
From the Azores to the country
We know that there are very few impossible things in politics, but as absolute majorities seem an unlikely scenario, post-election agreements will be decisive in determining who will govern the Azores.
In the polarized political climate, the regions of the Azores promise to influence the country, especially given the proximity of the elections for the Assembly of the Republic on March 10. In 2024, as in 2020, the political situation in the Azores could become an embarrassment for the PSD’s national leadership. If Bolieiro renews his alliance with Chega, Luís Montenegro’s attempts at demarcation will fail and the PS will gain a political asset of enormous value to take action against the specter of the far right.
In policy agreements, IL’s behavior in the Azores will also be monitored according to national logic, especially to discuss the party’s level of maturity to participate in a government solution. Remember that in Madeira the PSD chose to support the PAN and reject the IL, straining relations between social democrats and liberals.
The elections in the Azores will also be a test to assess the impact of António Costa’s resignation and the Operation Influencer cases. At the moment it is still unclear in the country and on the archipelago whether the electorate wants to punish the PS or whether ‘Pedronunism’ has already made people forget the not so distant past. In any case, the Azores will be the first litmus test for the PS post-António Costa.
Journalist from the Western Azores
Source: DN
