Almost a year after the dissolution of the National Assembly pronounced by Emmanuel Macron, the relations of political power were largely Rebatus. At the end of the advanced legislative elections in July, the new Popular Front (NFP, Alianza de LFI, EELV, PS and PCF) had reached the top with 180 seats, in front with 159 seats that the national rally with 143 seats.
But the dynamic is something different today, as revealed by an Elabe survey conducted for BFMTV and the Tribune on Sunday, presented this Saturday, June 7. The survey reveals that in case of a new solution, the RN would be largely at the top of the voting intentions (between 32.5 and 33% of voting voting intentions according to hypothesis, against 24.7% during the last year during the last year.
The left would be ahead of
In the case of a United Left, the new Popular Front would obtain 21% of the votes (against 31.2% last year), ahead of together (15.5% against 27.5% last year) and Republicans (10% against 11.6% in 2024). In the case of a divided left, an alliance PS/EELV/PCF (16%) would be ahead of LFI (10%).
Whatever the supply for the left, together it is credited with 15.5% of the voting intentions. In detail, it seems that the presidential camp is based on 63-64% of its electoral base 2024 (the rest prefers a candidate to the left or LR) and a small part of LR voters (12-15%).
According to its label, LR would obtain 10-10.5%of the voting intentions, recovering only a part of its 2024 voters (51-53%) but attracting voters together (12-15%).
The RN, a great dissolution winner?
In retrospect, the French consider that the RN is perceived as the winner of this solution. 42% of the French judge that the RN is the most reinforced part of the sequence (+8 points in 6 months). This observation is shared for all electorates. On the contrary, 10% of respondents judge that it is the PFN that is most reinforced in this political episode, against 5% who consider that they are Republicans or the presidential field.
Finally, 38% of those questioned believe that no political camp is a winner of this sequence.
Internet survey from June 3 to 5, 2025, from a sample of 1,610 people representative of residents of continental France of 18 years or more. The representativeness of the sample was ensured according to the quota method applied to the following variables: sex, age and profession of the interviewee after stratification by region and category of agglomeration.
Source: BFM TV
