First there was the PSD, in an already expected change. Now, to the surprise of many, it is the turn of the Liberal Initiative and the PCP. Of the eight parties with seats in the Assembly of the Republic, three have changed or will soon change leaders, and if you add the CDS, which lost parliamentary representation in the parliamentary elections in January, there are already four. And the changes may not stop there: next year’s calendar will feature the electoral conventions of the Bloco de Esquerda and the PAN, with no provisional certainty as to the continuity of the current leaders, in two parties that suffered heavy defeats in the last legislature. elections. .
What explains this succession of changes at the top of the parties? The most obvious reason is that the PS received an absolute majority in the elections in January. “We are still at the beginning of what should be a period of socialist governance that, while not silent, will be stable” and that in itself is “encouragement for a change of leadership in the parties that see themselves as a alternative” of the government (read the PSD), emphasizes Viriato Soromenho-Marques, professor at the Faculty of Arts of the University of Lisbon, to DN.
Historically, the PSD is by far the party with the highest turnover in leadership. Since its formation in 1974, the Social Democrats have had 19 presidents (for comparison, the PS had eight, less than half).
Viriato Soromenho-Marques points out that the right is more “pragmatic”. For Paula do Espírito Santo, the leaders on the left are more collectively diluted, there are no individual defeats.
Looking at the different mandates, one fact is clear: the PSD is a machine for shredding leaders when they are in opposition. It is no coincidence that the longest terms of Social Democratic leaders correspond exactly to the periods of PSD governance: Cavaco Silva was the Orange president who held the position longest, for a decade, between 1985 and 1995; next is Passos Coelho, who headed the party for nearly eight years; and, third in terms of longevity, Durão Barroso, who led for five years. It’s only in fourth position of this podium that the link between staying in leadership and conquering power is broken – the spot belongs to Rui Rio, who has been in charge for more than four years without ever becoming prime minister. All in all, a PSD leader is on average about two and a half years in office.
For António Costa Pinto, there are two explanations that contribute to this scenario. “The PSD – whose party structure is only comparable to that of the PS and not to minor parties – was initially characterized by an organizational structure less dominated by professional politicians. It has always been a more open party, from the point of view of its structure and take the case of Cavaco Silva, who did not come from the hard core,” says the coordinating researcher at the Institute of Social Sciences (ICS) of the University of Lisbon .
The PS, on the other hand, “has a more coherent structure, has a group of leaders who in most cases come from the hard core of the party, are professional politicians, with a very long political career. António Costa is an example of that.” A second factor has to do with the logic of the government vs opposition – a longer stay in the opposition implies “a higher number of leadership crises”, a “general rule that also applies to the PS”.
In turn, Paula do Espírito Santo, a researcher at the University of Lisbon’s Higher Institute of Social and Political Sciences (ISCSP), points to the PSD as “a greater tendency towards internal segmentation and the formation of “factions”, groups that formed and that they have power ambitions, which ultimately leads to a renewal, to new forms of leadership that are formed as an alternative.”
More pragmatic anyway
After the PSD, which kept the CDS in the equation, which lost parliamentary representation in the last legislature, it was precisely the centrists who lived alongside a greater number of leaders: there were ten of them, with Paulo Portas as a repeater. And, still on the right, the Liberal Initiative is launched, preparing to elect the fourth leader in its short six-year history in January.
On the left, there’s nothing quite like this revenue scenario. If the PS had eight leaders in its nearly half-century history, the PCP will have Paulo Raimundo as its sixth general secretary in a 100-year history. Created in 1999, the Bloco de Esquerda has so far had three leaders, under the figure of the Coordinator. Livre chooses spokespersons for the contact group (the day-to-day management of the party) and since 2020 two co-spokespersons. A formal structure that does not reflect the fact that Rui Tavares is widely seen as the leader of the party. The PAN (which rejects the left/right dichotomy) has had three leaders since 2011.
For Paula do Espírito Santo, this difference is explained by a greater personalism of the leaders on the right, where presidents “take direct responsibility for defeats, just as victories strengthen their personal position”. This is not the case with the left: “In the collective everything is diluted. Victories are collective, so are defeats, decisions are shared and tend to be little contested”.
For António Costa Pinto, it is “natural” that small parties experiencing abrupt growth, such as the Liberal Initiative, experience “leadership crises”.
Soromenho-Marques points to another factor that helps explain the greater turnover of leaders across one of the political spectrums: “The right has always been much more pragmatic, the parties organize themselves to achieve prominence, they play an important role. The parties on the left, in Portugal they are very conservative in that respect”.
António Costa Pinto emphasizes that “there are specific causes for each party”. And, in the case of the Liberal Initiative, the cause of this change in leadership is a classic of the political path of party organizations – “The new parties that have a rather abrupt growth, as is the case, is, of course, that they are going through this leadership crises”. In the case of the party still led by João Cotrim Figueiredo, these crises are “settled through internal elections, in the case of Chega, for example, they are resolved by creating internal crises to consolidate the apparatus around the leader , by successive reassertion of the leader”. As for the Liberal Initiative, besides some surprise with the departure of Cotrim Figueiredo, a repeated point is the prediction that the current president will not end his political career here. “I suspect that he has not yet exhausted his ambitions. I think that he will protect himself against this trench warfare, against this policy of friction” which, anticipating Viriato Soromenho-Marques, will mark this legislature, and “will return in the European or presidential elections.”
Regarding the change in PCP general secretary, António Costa Pinto says the new communist leader “fundamentally has a profile of continuity” in relation to Jerónimo de Sousa. But he highlights an “interesting dimension”, in a sequence that revealed “some internal dissatisfaction, with some external visibility”.
Source: DN
