Last tight vote, succession of Martine Aubry … in Lille, who will win the Battle of Belfry in the 2026 municipal elections?

In Lille, the next municipal elections, scheduled for March 2026, are similar to an athletics career: it will be necessary to be very attentive to the “photographic”, since the competition promises to be tight, more than five years after the previous vote, which had only played 2.27 votes between socialists and environmentalists.

Former friends, allies in most 2001 to 2020, will face each other again, but in a completely different context. This time, the reigning champion will not be in the race. Martine Aubry, 74, hung the crampons in March, one year from the deadline, finishing a reign of four mandates, almost a quarter of a century to the head of the Belfry.

Socialist duel

So that socialist hegemony extends to Lille, the city has always remained pink under the fifth Republic, two members of its camp are in the departure line, before a vote of the militants decreed on November 6.

First, what Martine Aubry chose during his farewell, a faithful among the faithful: Arnaud Desidlands, 42, who became mayor a few days later, after a vote of the municipal council.

Upon entering the City Council in 2005 as an intern, he uploaded all levels with former Lionel Jospin Labor Minister, especially exercising as his chief of cabinet, before becoming the first deputy.

But another socialist did not wait for the powers to begin: the deputy director of the North and the municipal councilor of Lille, Roger Vicot, 61, a candidate since the end of September 2023, without the assent of the head of the facilities, irritated by this approach.

The parliamentarian wants to establish “a critical look” in her evaluation, even if she was a “great mayor” according to him, speaking for example to “look at what worked or not” for Lille 3000, a cultural season that has experienced several editions since 2004, the year in which the city was chosen European capital of culture.

On the contrary, Arnaud Desidlands said when he registered his “action in the line of what was achieved”, claiming “Martine Aubry’s inheritance in politics” and evoking “the renewal of working -class neighborhoods”, “defense of public services”, or even a “resistant” city in the face of climate change.

Without having the favors of Martine Aubry, Roger Vicot knows how to show. Remembering, for example, his role during the municipal elections of 2020, the former mayor of Lomme (2012-2022), one of Lille’s two associated municipalities with Hellemmes, also asked to vote for the mayor’s election. It was in his strength where Martine Aubry obtained the beautiful necessary voices for his victory.

What role for Martine Aubry in the internal battle?

In summary, the elected official of the Assembly claims to have “many more advantages and legitimacy” than its internal competitor “, totally unknown in the associated municipalities, but also in Lille, even if it unfolds a lot of energy to remedy it,” according to him.

Already involved by his opponents at this point, which reduces him to an “interim mayor”, the interested director responded in advance to criticism during his appointment, stating: “I will prove that I am not a mayor of transition”; “I have a year to prove.”

If Martine Aubry said “convinced”, during his farewell, that the Lille “will want to continue with him,” nothing assures that his support is decisive. “In 2020, he almost lost and the way he handled his succession was widely criticized. Therefore, we do not know if it will get involved and if it is committed, we cannot say if it will have a real influence,” analyzes politician Pierre Mathiot, former general director of Science Po Lille.

Environmentalists at the right time?

While the Socialists are trapped in the starting blocks, the environmentalist Stéphane Boly, which is “rather a background that Sprinter” is already difficult. The unhappy 2020 candidate wants to end this bad memory of a few hundred votes.

Appointed before the previous time by activists and with a net gain, this 53 -year -old engineering school teacher chose the municipal councilor in 2014, he believes in his time. To the point of talking about a “alignment of the planets”, between a “outgoing mayor that does not appear” and a “transmission of testimony” that he describes as “total failure.”

“The 2020 program of the candidate that won in five cards: Aubry. There, we are at the end of a cycle. It depends on us to write a new chapter,” he projects.

Instead of “the national dynamics”, carried by a green wave in 2020, environmentalists then chained otherwise, either during the presidential elections or in European elections, Stéphane Boly, therefore, prefers to retain local problems. “

After the breakdown of 2020, the speech of the chosen green lawyers is a nuanced speech, remembering that his party was with Martine Aubry for “three mandates” and giving good points to the municipality, as in “education.”

However, he obviously intends to distinguish himself and recalled, for example, to AFP his desire to “resume everything” for the planning project of the Saint-Sauveur station, a great urban wasteland in the heart of a confrontation between environmentalists and socialists.

LFI conquers

In this confrontation of the left, socialists and environmentalists are not alone. Insumise France claims the gold medal, still underline the resounding scores of the movement in the last elections. Especially in the first round of the presidential elections where Jean-Luc Mélenchon gathered 40.53%of the votes, far ahead of Emmanuel Macron (25.67%) and Marine Le Pen (11.77%).

Deputy chosen in Lille in 2024, in the constituency previously occupied by Adrien Quatennens, Aurélien Coq directly announced the color when presenting the city as “rebel.” A direct contour of the ambition that LFI exhibits that wishes to invest more than usual in the municipal ballot, hoping to obtain several municipalities and continue weighing the balance of power to the left.

Aurélien Lecoq scan the result of 2020 (8.84% of the votes for candidate Julien Poix, note of the editor) in Lille, remembering the high level of abstention (68.27%) of this election organized during the COVVI-19 epidemic. “The cornerstone of the campaign if we want to realize that the popular union is that people are going to vote,” he said, taking a well -known chorus of the rebels.

In this sense, LFI presses to register on the electoral lists and has printed a brochure to 100,000 copies, offering “unworthy housing”, “Parking paid in working-class neighborhoods” and supporting “free and functional transport”, as well as “parks in Saint-Sauveur and elsewhere”.

As for the head of the list, “there are several options on the table,” said Aurélien Le Coq, who does not excite the equation, unlike Ugo Bernalicis, also a deputy in Lille. The election will be known for “the beginning of the school year, conscious of September.”

Violette Spilball in ambush

A deputy of the presidential field observes the collapse of the left with appetite. Third arrival in the second round in 2020 with almost 20 points behind Martine Aubry and Stéphane Boly, Violette Spillet knows that he needs a division of voices with his opponents to expect to prevail.

In addition, the former cabinet director of Martine Aubry (2008-2012) who joined the Walkers in 2018, performs an analysis of the election that corresponds to this perspective: “I think we can have a very fragmented first round with several candidates close to 15%.”

Violette Spillette estimates that “the balances have changed” the 52 -year -old elected representative, who was born in Lyon before growing in Lille, sees on the one hand “instead of decreasing” environmentalists, and in the other “an increase in extremes”, designating both the rebel France and the national meeting. Two teams that can “create surprise,” he said.

In a city that votes to the left, Violette Spillet is bothering very little of the label of his party, necessarily less gold at this time, while the Executive, and especially Prime Minister François Bayrou, is very unpopular.

The former socialist prefers to highlight a “transpartyst spirit”, with his role as Rapporteur, with the rebel Paul Vannier, in the Betharram case research commission, which earned him tensions with the modem while François Bayrou is involved in this file. He is also strong with his two elections as a member of Parliament, in 2022 and 2024, which strengthens his experience and notoriety.

Its priorities for the city: “security”, “cleaning”, “business” and “the fight against poverty”.

Aware that it could double while it remains divided, the left is preparing. A meeting took place in June, especially between socialists and environmentalists, but without the rebels. “We agree that disun being the first round would be total stupidity,” said Roger Vicot, while Stéphane Boly says he is ready to “assume responsibility” if he did not lead.

Whatever happens, you will have to go fast, remember Pierre Mathiot. “The first round takes place on a Sunday and the lists who want to merge between them must deposit on Monday. In other words, socialists and environmentalists must agree in 24 hours,” explains the political scientist, who considers that his ability to carry “will probably be the key to the election.

The RN in the fifth thief with Matthieu Valet’s candidacy?

In this already occupied Lille race, the national rally could also take a part, as small as it is. A certain Matthieu Valet can represent the far -right party, which had obtained only 6.84% of the votes in 2020.

The realistic Eurodiputee of RN, former trade unionist and police, makes the suspense last, even if some of his potential opponents do not hesitate that he will cross the Rubicon. “At the moment I am not a candidate, we are in the preparation of the program,” he said, referring this decision to “October or November”, but remembering his attachment to the capital of Flanders: “I think because Lille is my city, I was born there, I grew up.”

“The RN is low in Lille, but you can expect to approve 10% of the votes expressed (necessary condition to access the second round, editor’s note) with a national figure,” says Pierre Mathiot. “Therefore, we could have a quadangular quadrangular, even a quinchangular in the second round (according to participation, note). This will be a very interesting choice from this point of view: it is surely one of the most uncertain in France.”