Will the assembly threat be implemented? From the announcement of the vote of trust decided by François Bayrou, which will take place on September 8 at the National Assembly and that should probably lead to his departure as Matignon, the question of a new solution is in all the heads of the political world.
In the case of a persistent blockade in the Assembly, “it is inevitable,” recognized former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe in the BFMTV microphone. The observation is shared by Gérald Darmanin. “The dissolution is expensive for France, of course, but this hypothesis should not be ruled out,” said the Minister of Justice on Tuesday in France 2.
Without prime minister, the dissolution becomes credible
In fact, it is difficult not to judge the organization of the new legislative elections if Emmanuel Macron could find a prime minister to replace François Bayrou.
“Do you know people who want to go to Matignon for less than 3 months to get a budget when we have no money, all within a year and a half of the presidential elections?” A ministerial advisor put me on Tuesday.
It also remains to find a candidate who can convince to a large extent beyond his camp to achieve 289 votes to vote for the state budget and social security.
Otherwise, it must use article 49.3 of the Constitution that allows you to adopt a text without vote, which then puts it at the mercy of a motion of censure. Michel Barnier paid the price last December.
Macron will not “deprive constitutional power”
The president, who is the only one who can dissolve the National Assembly again, could decide to play its entirety and again to call the legislative elections.
“It is not his desire because the assembly is legitimate and reflects the country in its diversity, but also in its divisions,” explains one of his relatives. “However, he has always said that he would not be deprived of constitutional power a priori.”
If Emmanuel Macron activates this cartridge again, it would be hoping to get out of the political routine with a solid majority that would leave the polls and that would allow to adopt the budget. Can it really happen, only 13 months after a surprise solution that gave birth to a particularly fragmented national assembly? The most likely hypothesis is that a hemicycle always divided a kind of solution.
Another question: in the case of the organization of new legislative elections and a possible victory of the national demonstration, will Emmanuel Macron assume remaining in history as the president who allowed Jordan Bardella or Marine Le Pen to enter the step in Matignon?
RN with processes
If it is not possible to answer this question, the national meeting rubs your hands. “Only the dissolution will now allow the French to choose their destiny,” said the head of RN deputies in X after François Bayrou’s announcement.
It should be said that the flame match awaits the return game of the last legislative elections in which it came to a large extent in the first round before being beaten in the second. The president of the Jordan Bardella movement has summoned Emmanuel Macron in TF1 to choose between “a solution” or “his resignation.”
The former Prime Minister of Head of State Gabriel Attal stops in the four plates. If the Bayroun government falls, the macronist “does not believe that a new solution bring stability.”
“If one wonders every year if the French must relive, it is that the problem does not come from the French, but from the assembly itself,” he insisted again in Gabriel Attal in France on Tuesday.
Tethany in government
His distrust of the organization of the new legislative elections is not a surprise. From the vote to the elections, the Renaissance is increasingly in difficulty. In 2022, the Emmanuel Macron movement managed to choose 170 deputies against 267 in 2017. In the last legislative elections last July, the macronists managed to obtain only 90 elected officials in the National Assembly.
As for the union of the left, leaving the polls during the last legislative elections, without gaining a prime minister as a constituted use, it is in dispersed order.
“Given the situation, we do not expect a solution”, but “if there is one, the news wants to be prepared for the PS. We work there,” said the head of the deputies of PS Boris Vallaud with liberation.
On the side of the rebel of France, we are also preparing for a solution, but above all for a new motion of dismissal against the head of state.
Meanwhile, the Elysée officially refuses to listen to the dance of the assumptions. “There was no doubt of a scenario after September 8” in the Council of Ministers, he assured the Government spokeswoman Sophie Prima this Wednesday during a press point.
Source: BFM TV
