A right prime minister with Michel Barnier, a macronist with François Bayrou and now a socialist with Olivier Faure? After the departure of the current tenant of Matignon, more likely that he never approached on September 8 and the vote of trust, the first secretary of the PS does not intend.
We are “volunteers” and “ready” to enter Matignon, we launched the socialist at the summer universities of the party at the end of August.
Message received by Emmanuel Macron that seeks to get out of the crisis and avoid a new solution in the coming weeks? The head of state took advantage of a lunch at the Elysée on Tuesday around Édouard Philippe, Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau and François Bayrou to urge them to “work” with the PS.
By eliminating the calculator, we understand that the president has few options. If the entire common base combines its forces with socialist troops, 276 deputies are obtained. If we still add the Liot, this group of heterogeneous, environmental and communist deputies, while excluding the rebelliously opposite rebellies, we even climb 354 deputies, 65 more than the absolute majority.
What largely makes it possible to adopt the state and social security budgets next fall, without resorting to 49.3, this article in the Constitution makes it possible to have a text without a vote adopted. Avoiding, therefore, a motion of censure.
In summary, a true guarantee of stability in a deeply moving political panorama for more than a year. To drive the point again, Olivier Faure said he was following the holidays in the Elysée in “the provision of the president” to discuss “the conditions” of such scenario.
All except 49.3
On the macronista side, we are ready there despite the multiple peaks thrown by François Bayrou in recent days to the socialists. “If we continue to maintain the same coalition, we go directly to the wall. So yes, we must be ready to put water in our wine,” says former minister Jean-Baptiste Moreau, a member of the Renaissance administration with BFMTV.
“I am not going to tell you that I loved it. But between a new solution and return to 40 to the assembly or have Olivier Faure as prime minister, the question is quickly answered (sic). Let’s say that I am not against the idea,” he acknowledges a macronista deputy, from the right wing.
In Macronie, several elected officials request the commitment not to use 49.3 and the guarantee of not unraveling the economic policy of Emmanuel Macron with decrees.
It remains to be convinced to a large extent of deputies LR and Horizons (or 83 deputies) to play the game accepting at least not to censor a government led by Olivier Faure.
The “neither yes nor” on the right
Until now, the president of the right -wing elected officials at the Laurent Wauquiez assembly seemed fiercely against. But times have changed. This Thursday, September 4 in BFMTV, he announced that his deputies would be censored “or a PS or RN government” to avoid “catastrophic instability.”
It is still necessary to ensure that LR deputies are all in the same wavelength even though François Bayrou supports them. Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau has already put his veto, explaining in the process in X that “if a socialist government had to carry out a policy contrary to the interests of France, the duty of law would be to prevent it.”
The appointment of a government led by a socialist would also end with the presence of ministers of law, a great snake to swallow for a party that has quickly resumed power in power in recent months.
“We can have right ministers and PS ministers in a government, but we will not go with a socialist prime minister. This is a categorical Niet. It is not a matter,” is a ministerial advisor of one of the rights of the rights of the right.
No LR ministers then, but a kindness of the Senate despite everything? The upper room, dominated by the right, has become a true facilitator in recent months for the Government in the absence of a majority in the assembly. “We cannot have a government agreement with the PS,” said the president of the Gérard Larcher Senate in the columns of the Parisian.
“It is really difficult to say it, kill a macronist deputy. LR deputies have nothing to do with their senators.
The imperative, concessions on both sides
Despite this unknown, Laurent Wauquiez’s position and the opening of the central block releases the horizon of a commitment that François Hollande asks for his wishes from the Châlons fair and a government composed of environmental ministers, communists, PS and the central block. All supervised by Olivier Faure. But is it a prophet among the Socialists?
PS Dieynaba Diop spokesman rejects a “Republican Union, like this or with Laurent Wauquiez and even less with Macronie” on BFMTV this Thursday night.
“We, our government will only be with the left, environmentalists, civil society and all those who want to work,” insists on the deputy of the Yvelines.
“Specifically, we offer a non -censorship agreement with the central block, which would allow our government to last and look for the text of the majority by text,” Decrypts PS Deputy Philippe Brun.
So, even if that means pushing socialists to give up some of their red lines. Certainly, they have presented a countered in recent days with very different orientations from those recommended by the common base. An effort of 22 billion against 44 billion currently planned, the creation of a tax on the very senior heritage defended by economist Gabriel Zucman … but that could remain in the boxes.
“All this can only work if upward concessions have acted both among the socialists and in the central block,” insists the deputy Liot Harold Huwart. Among the Liot, we campaign to agree on ten proposals related to the budget and follow it at all costs, with the PS or the common base.
“We will not go for Macron Pure Sugar”
“Everything will not be applicable” in the program of the new Popular Front, has already recognized the first secretary of the PS, while promising to do “everything possible” this Monday night in BFMTV.
“You still have to serve something we are going. We are not masochists either. We will not go if it is to make macron pure sugar,” he acknowledges a relative of the head of the left.
It is in a few months of municipal elections and a presidential campaign that should begin next September, should not be damaged too much and disqualify for the future.
Another risk: a baroque alliance between RN and LFI that would be combined to bring to Olivier Faure’s government very quickly. On paper, the account is not there, but the method would exert pressure on the new government very seriously.
“Olivier Faure can be made available to Macron to replace Bayrou. The Insoumis do not report anything and have nothing to do with this service offer they condemn,” said Jean-Luc Mélenchon on X this Tuesday.
But could the rebels really get as far as censorship? Despite the strong tensions with the PS, it could be very difficult to assume that wanting to abandon a government that offers to increase the taxes of the very rich and return to retirement at age 64.
“Obviously, all this challenges us to know how far we can get politically. But we are in an exceptional situation and we must all take measures between us,” urge the macronista deputy Laure Miller, of the LR. Will it be heard?
Source: BFM TV
