The deputies go down to the arena. Almost a week after Sébastien Lecornu’s general policy speech, which announced the suspension of the pension reform, the budget review began in the National Assembly. At the moment, only a small group of deputies, those belonging to the Finance Commission, are working on it before the starting signal in the chamber this Friday. But the first echoes already give an idea of the content of the debates, which should be electric.
Demanded for months by the socialists, supported by the entire left, the tax on assets exceeding 100 million euros, popularized by the economist Gabriel Zucman, was widely rejected before the Finance Committee. The same story about the elimination of reduced VAT on certain luxury products or even the general increase in tax rates on capital, also widely rejected.
Votes without many consequences
Let us, therefore, leave this first copy of the majority of the measures that seek to increase the taxation of the very well-off French in a context in which the State, however, looks in all directions for money to complete its budget. This is good news for the Prime Minister who, although he recognizes “anomalies” in the amounts paid to the Public Treasury by the richest, has always closed the door to the creation of the Zucman tax.
Insteadseveral amendments adopted in the Finance Commission could shake the government. The Ministry of Economy currently plans to freeze the income tax scale, which would make more than 200,000 households who did not pay it responsible. However, a provision intended to exclude lower-income households was adopted in committee on Monday.
But these arbitrations do not really have important consequences. In fact, the deputies return to the chamber based on the initial copy presented by the government. The debates in committee allow us above all to evaluate the balance of forces.
If the votes can be completely equal in the commission and in the chamber – this was, for example, the case last year with the abolition of a tax on the electricity bill despite having been defended by the Government or with the review of employer contributions to low wages – it also happens that the results are very different.
An example of this is the exceptional contribution on large companies defended by Michel Barnier’s government in the autumn of 2024, when he was Prime Minister. The article that establishes this provision was adopted in committee. After intense debates between a part of the macro-granddaughter, who was against it, and the left, who wanted to stop it, it was finally rejected during the parliamentary debates.
A still very common base.
Having taken these precautions, what lessons can we draw from these first votes in the Finance Committee that will end this Wednesday afternoon?
First lesson: for the moment, the common basis remains. LR ministers who remained in or joined the government may be subject to an exclusion procedure, but the common ground still exists, at least in terms of voting.
Macronie, like the deputies led by Laurent Wauquiez, largely voted against the establishment of the Zucman tax. The National Rally also does not hesitate to join the presidential side when it comes to repressing in committee an attempt to create “a climate ISF” or the reestablishment of the wealth tax.
As for the New Popular Front, the discourse of its leaders is not the same in the media and in the committees. Rebellious France cannot digest the fact that the socialists have decided not to censure Sébastien Lecornu. However, their deputies vote hand in hand. This is, for example, the case of the reestablishment of the exit tax, a system that prevents French tax residents with high assets from expatriating to evade taxes, widely supported by the entire left in the commission.
Last lesson: baroque alliances between the different groups in the National Assembly are not impossible. Identical amendments were adopted to restore the 10% reduction in retirement pensions for LR, RN and LFI.
Will these lessons withstand the cauldron of the National Assembly this weekend? Last year, the left achieved numerous victories, due to the lack of mobilization of LR and Macronie. In a reverse vote, the National Assembly largely rejected one part of the finance bill.
The budget debates finally came to a screeching halt a few days later, following Michel Barnier’s release of a 49.3 on the social security budget. This year, Sébastien Lecornu promised not to use it. It remains to be seen whether the budget discussions will go the distance within a very limited timetable.
Source: BFM TV
