The path seems very narrow, if it exists at all. This Monday, November 3, more than a week after the start of budget debates in the chamber of the National Assembly, the possibility of approval of the finance bill (PLF) by deputies seems increasingly difficult to envision.
First reason: the slowness of the examination of this text, more commonly called the State budget. The vote on the first part of the text, the “recipes”, was supposed to take place on Tuesday, but it will have to wait. At issue: the more than 2,000 amendments that remain to be examined. A mission impossible to achieve in a single day this Monday.
“Maybe” a vote on the income part, but “not on the expenses part”
If there is no vote on Tuesday, the “revenue” part of the PLF will be suspended. Because, that same day, the deputies will take up the Social Security financing bill (PLFSS), previously rejected in committee. A solemn vote is scheduled for November 12 on this text.
On this date, the PLF will regain control. There will then be eleven days left for its transmission to the Senate, on November 23 at midnight at the latest, to respect the deadlines provided for by the Constitution.
In fact, the supreme text specifies that deputies have 40 days to decide in first reading on the state budget after the presentation of the bill. While Parliament has, in total, 70 days to decide, that is, until December 23 in this case.
The general rapporteur of the budget, Philippe Juvin (Les Républicains), considered this Sunday “very likely” that the National Assembly will not be able to finish the examination of the budget on time. “Maybe you vote on income, but not on expenses,” he explained in LCI.
Is a majority possible?
Beyond the deadlines that must be respected, another problem arises: if there is a vote, nothing says that it is favorable, since everyone shows their dissatisfaction with the current version.
“I don’t really see how this first part (on income, ed.) could be voted on, because, in fact, it is not going to satisfy anyone,” Philippe Juvin stressed this Sunday.
In detail, the adoption of the text would require the abstention of the socialists and environmentalists (and the positive vote of the government coalition). However, nothing suggests this at this time.
The leader of the PS deputies, Boris Vallaud, expressed in an interview with La Tribune Dimanche his “displeasure”, after the rejection on Friday of the Zucman tax on the assets of the ultra-rich, and while the left in general struggles to “do justice in this budget.”
“If the budget were presented to us today, we would obviously vote against it, knowing everything that this implies, that is, the fall of the Government,” added the one whose group had decided to give Sébastien Lecornu a chance by not censuring him.
The environmentalists are also severe with the Government, but also with the socialists, whose search for compromise at all costs they seem to regret, as does France insoumise: “I no longer understand what the PS is doing,” declared the head of the green deputies, Cyrielle Chatelain, on France Info on Friday night.
The text is not only criticized by the left. The government has also expressed its reluctance in the face of votes often contrary to its opinions, which have resulted in an increase in tax pressure. Thus, the Minister of Economy, Roland Lescure, warned, in an interview for La Tribune Dimanche, against the “fiscal witchcraft” of measures, according to him, “ineffective”, citing a tax on the profits of multinationals.
Finally, in this long list of discontents, the National Rally criticized, through its vice president Sébastien Chenu, a budget “of leftovers”, which creates “many taxes” without addressing “toxic expenses.”
What result if the budget is not approved?
If the deputies rejected the income part of the PLF, the text would go directly to the Senate, which would be in charge of the initial budget copy.
After the debates in the upper house, dominated by the right and the center-right, deputies and senators will have to agree on a common version through a mixed commission (CMP), a body favorable to the presidential campaign and LR if they can reach an agreement.
In the event of a conclusive CMP, both the Assembly and the Senate must decide on the copy resulting from this work. However, in this case too it would be very difficult to obtain a favorable vote from the deputies.
Normally, Sébastien Lecornu, failing to obtain an absolute majority in the Bourbon Palace, would have been able to deploy 49.3 votes to approve the text without the vote of the Assembly. However, the Prime Minister decided to renounce this article of the Constitution before the budget debates to give a guarantee to the Socialist Party and avoid censorship.
In his camp, some are urging him to reverse this decision, such as Marc Fesneau, head of the modern deputies. “It would be a 49.3 compromise, not to force Parliament, but to record what there is an agreement on,” said the leader of the modern deputies in an interview for Libération, adding: “It will be preferable to a non-votable budget.”
However, the Minister of Public Accounts, Amélie de Montchalin, assured this Monday on RTL that the government “will not back down.”
Special law, ordinances…
Without 49.3, other, much rarer scenarios can be expected if the budget is not adopted in time. Firstly, that of a special law, which allows the State in particular to collect existing taxes and, therefore, avoid a US-style “closure”.
This exceptional situation occurred last December in the Social Security budget after Michel Barnier, then Prime Minister, was overthrown by a motion of no confidence. However, this solution would not be without drawbacks: it would cost the economy 11 billion euros, according to Bercy.
The last possible option would be unprecedented in the history of the Fifth Republic: approve the budget by ordinance. These allow all budget agreements to be adopted through the Council of Ministers and not Parliament.
The government can use it through article 47 of the Constitution if the examination deadlines set for financial texts are not met.
Some believe that this scenario is inevitable, such as Hervé Marseille, head of the centrist senators. “We know very well that they are going to impose orders on us,” he declared in the Public Senate last week. The same applies to far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who believes we are heading “straight towards” this possibility.
Also interviewed by the Public Senate, rebel deputy Éric Coquerel, also president of the finance commission, even accused the government this Monday of “playing to buy time” to be able to approve the budget through these famous ordinances or through a special law.
The government denies this: “It is too early to discuss these hypotheses. Starting to talk about the future implies that we already have a strategy to avoid Parliament. This is not the case,” said Laurent Panifous, Minister of Relations with Parliament, in the Public Senate. Along the same lines, Amélie de Montchalin assured the Assembly that the government has “no hidden plan.”
In addition, his office assured AFP that the executive wants a budget to be voted “without ordinance or special law.” To reach a solution, Sébastien Lecornu asked on Friday “all interested ministers” to bring together the representatives of the groups to “try to agree on the fundamental principles of the approval of a text for Social Security and for the finance bill.”
First variant of this change of method: the ministers in charge of budgetary issues invited all the presidents of the parliamentary groups to the Ministry of Relations with Parliament on Monday at noon.
Source: BFM TV
