Is a new candidacy for Emmanuel Macron possible at the Élysée? The constitution can only authorize the president to serve “two consecutive terms,” but a decision by France’s highest court could open up the possibility for the head of state to run for a third time, according to some political observers.
“The President of the Republic is elected for five years by direct universal suffrage. No one can exercise more than two consecutive mandates”, however, article 6 of the Constitution indicates.
But on October 25, the Council of State gave a favorable opinion to the Polynesian prime minister who was wondering if the president of this Pacific atoll could run for the third time, after two terms.
A Polynesian decision that sows problems
The organic law specifies that the president of this overseas community “cannot serve more than two consecutive terms of five years.” But during his first term, the current Polynesian head of state was only in power for 4 years; he then succeeded Gaston Flosse, who had just resigned. Result: for the Council of State, he has the right to appear for the third time.
What opens up for certain constitutionalists the possibility that the Élysée tenant will represent himself in 2027? Yes, replies the former Keeper of the Seals Jean-Jacques Urvoas in the columns of Opinion. As long as, according to the former minister, he does not complete his current term.
“Let’s imagine that you dissolve the National Assembly, lose the legislative elections and resign”, scaffolds Jean-Jacques Urvoas. “Then the president of the Senate would take office (as provided in the Constitution, editor’s note) and a new election would be organized.”
“Since he would not have served two full consecutive terms, he could be a candidate,” says the former minister, who now teaches public law at Brest University.
An overly vague constitutional formula
It is that there is an ambiguity since the constitutional review of 2008 that introduced this new provision: are we to understand that the president cannot be elected more than twice in a row or that he cannot serve two full terms immediately?
The reform clearly pointed to the “imperative of periodic renewal” of the candidates, can be read in the report of the committee for the modernization of the institutions chaired by Édouard Balladur in 2008.
“If Emmanuel Macron were to represent himself in 2027, it would clearly be a departure from the spirit of the law,” said Paul Cassia, a specialist in constitutional law, interviewed by BFMTV.com.
“But the chosen formula clearly opens up the discussion,” he admits. “It would have been clearer to write that no one could be elected more than twice. There, we really don’t know.”
A possible candidacy in 2032
The maneuver could give the Élysée food for thought while the president already raised the possibility of a dissolution in front of his relatives last September. Without his political field, it is difficult to believe in him.
But if the president resigns during his term and the idea of representing himself in 2027 germinates in his mind, it is the Constitutional Council that would have to decide. The institution that validates the 500 referrals needed In order to compete for the supreme magistracy, he could have a say in verifying that his candidacy is in fact in accordance with the Constitution.
Dominique Chagnollaud, who has worked together with Édouard Balladur in preparing the institutions, for his part considers it unlikely that the presidency will interpret the Constitution in a maximalist sense in its favour.
“This text does not speak of the end of their mandates but of ‘their mandates’ very short. Emmanuel Macron was elected twice so he cannot run again in 2027, regardless of whether he reaches the end of his five-year term.” create this professor of constitutional law in Paris-2.
Ambiguity or not, one thing is certain: nothing will stop Emmanuel Macron from running for re-election in 2032, after the election of his eventual successor. After all, he would only be 55, only 3 years older than Nicolas Sarkozy when he was elected in 2007.
Source: BFM TV
