Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa’s Portuguese rating is still at a positive level, but his popularity hit an all-time low this month. Even though a large majority of Portuguese agree with their views and concerns. According to Aximage’s political barometer for DN, JN and TSF, the President of the Republic has a balance of only 10 points (the difference between the 45% positive scores and the 35% negative ones). Far from the 46 positives it collected in April last year.
The president does not rule. But the assessment that the Portuguese make of him generally parallels that of the prime minister, even if Belém is always a few steps above it. When the political and social situation deteriorates, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa also pays the price. A symptom of this is what happened to your assessment once the rise in the cost of living began to weigh on your pocket. The 64% positive reviews from a year ago have turned into a continuous downward trend, to the current 45%. The proportion of dissatisfied, on the other hand, increased: in April it was 15%, today it is 35%.
Almost total alignment
On the other hand, the contamination of Marcelo by the deterioration of living conditions is proven when one realizes that, contrary to what the decline in popularity might suggest, most respondents can even endorse his views and concerns. One of the issues covered in this barometer has to do with the crisis that rocked the government between December and January and the president’s refusal to deepen it and call early elections: 58% agrees. There are three times more than those who disagree (18%). A harmony that cuts across all segments of the sample (be it geography, gender, age or social class), with one exception: Chega voters would be the only ones satisfied with new elections.
Another indication of the harmony between Marcelo and public opinion (or his ability to influence the political thermometer) is the answer to the question of whether or not the PSD would be willing to lead the country. It should not be forgotten that one of the reasons given by the president for maintaining the status quo, when faced with the signs of demotion of the absolute majority, was that there was no “clear, strong and immediate alternative” to the socialists . Almost two-thirds of the respondents agree with the statement: 63% answer that the PSD is not prepared to run a government, including the majority of the Social Democratic voters (44%).
Women still faithful
Identification with the political analyzes of “Professor Marcelo” no longer corresponds, as it underpins, at least for the moment, an identification with “President Marcelo”. And a more detailed analysis of the different segments of the sample helps to understand where this is most apparent. Confirmation from the outset that the sympathy for Marcelo is the most degraded among men: it escapes negative assessment on one point. It is the women, with a positive balance of 16 points, who keep their popularity well above the waterline.
When the focus shifts to age groups, Marcelo is confirmed to be the most popular at the two extremes of the pyramid. But the most comfortable balance is that of 65 and older. Similarly, and following the previous barometer (last September), it is the two lowest social classes that give the decisive push.
Negative balance only for persons between 35 and 49 years old (six points). And in two of the five regions in which the sample is divided: South and Islands and Porto Metropolitan Area. An event so rare that it deserves mention. On the contrary, the Center remains the bastion of presidential popularity. And it is worth highlighting the atypical case (the poll specialists would use the anglicism “outlier”) of the Lisbon region: last September it was least enthusiastic about Marcelo’s performance. Four months later, the rating is deteriorating everywhere… except in Lisbon, where the president maintains the same positive balance of 16 points.
the socialist pillar
Finally, when analyzing the preferences of the Portuguese according to their vote in the last parliamentary elections, a common fact emerges (repeated in almost all surveys): socialist voters are the main pillar of Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, with a positive balance of 42 percentage points. Even now, which is declining.
If the identification between the president and the electorate of the PS is high and regular, there is no reason to be surprised that Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa’s assessment mostly parallels that of António Costa, as at the beginning of this analysis was written .
As for the fact that he is always a few steps above the Prime Minister, the explanation is probably the simplest: the positive balance among the Social Democratic voters is also very high (35 points), which is by definition a prime socialist minister. never will. to succeed.
Costa will fail European funds
It was in the New Year’s message that the President of the Republic left a demanding message to the government that he did not want to overthrow. This will be a decisive year for the country’s political stability and recovery, after two years of pandemic and one year of energy and inflation crisis following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Marcelo said. One of the fundamental issues is the need to implement the €15 billion of European funds available all year round (€40 million per day), if we add the recovery and resilience plan and what is left to spend from Portugal 2030. The President remembers that the challenge is because he distrusts? We do not know. But we know that the Portuguese do not believe in the capacity of António Costa’s government to carry out the work: 51% say it will not be able to carry out the work. There are only two segments, of the several in which the sample is divided, in which the yes wins: the poorest (45%) and those who voted PS a year ago (60%). There is disbelief on the right side of the political spectrum, in this order: Liberals (82%), Chega voters (76%) and Social Democrats (63%).
Other data
Marcelo forward in confidence
When the Portuguese are asked who they trust most, whether in the president of the republic or in the prime minister, the barometer detects no relevant changes compared to last September (and previous vacancies): 47% choose Marcelo, almost four times as many respondents than those who choose Costa (13%).
78%
In this game of trust between the president and the head of government, the social-democratic voters are decisive. But in this vacancy, Costa regains the usual advantage among the socialist voters, leading Marcelo by nine points (in September it was the president who was ahead among those who voted for the PS).
Increased demand from the government
There is a new record regarding the percentage of respondents asking the president to be more demanding towards the government: this month it is 76%. But it should be noted that in September it was already 74% and the value in most barometers was always close to or greater than 70 points.
82%
Older Portuguese (65 years and older) are the least interested in early elections. Four out of five agree with the president’s decision not to call an election a year after an absolute socialist majority. They are more averse to political crises than socialist voters (78%).
Popularity rises during the pandemic
It was in November 2020, in the middle of the pandemic crisis, that Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa achieved the best barometer results for DN, JN and TSF: 74% positive reviews, only 9% negative, and therefore a balance of 65 points. It was close to this peak of popularity again in April 2021, still in times of covid: 71% positive, 10% negative and a balance of 61 points.
64%
The current downward trajectory of the President of the Republic began after December 2021, shortly after he opted to call parliamentary elections, following the run-up to the state budget. Costa achieved the absolute majority and with that came a surprising relegation: in April positive evaluations fell to 61%, in July to 56%, in September to 49% and now to 45%.
DATA SHEET
The survey was carried out by Aximage on behalf of DN, TSF and JN, with the aim of gauging the opinion of the Portuguese on topics related to current political events. The fieldwork took place between 10 and 14 January 2023 and collected 805 interviews among people over the age of 18 living in Portugal.
Sampling was performed based on quotas, obtained through a matrix intersecting gender, age and region (NUTSII), from the known universe, rebalanced by gender, age group and education. For a probability sample of 805 interviews, the maximum standard deviation of a proportion is 0.017 (ie a “margin of error” – at 95% – of 3.45%). Responsible for the study: Aximage Comunicação e Imagem, Lda., under the technical direction of Ana Carla Basílio.
Source: DN
