The weeks go by and the opposition of the French to the pension reform is increasingly clear. On January 11, 59% of them were against the government text according to an Elabe poll for BFMTV. A week later, this rejection increased to 66% of respondents, before finally rising to 72% on Wednesday. Undoubtedly: power is losing the battle of public opinion.
With a significant symbol: even a majority of retirees, the only socio-professional category so far favorable to the executive’s project, now opposes the pension reform. More precisely, there is 59%, an increase of 13 points in one week. This despite the fact that this text does not concern them and that those over 60 voted overwhelmingly in favor of Emmanuel Macron during the presidential elections.
“What is surprising is that the president has done everything possible to preserve them from this reform,” analyzes Amandine Atalaya, a political columnist for BFMTV. “No effort has been asked of them. For example, there is no reduction in the pensions of the richest retirees”.
“Sentence without appeal”
More generally, “nothing in the proposals, nothing in the explanations, nothing in the justifications presented by Emmanuel Macron, Élisabeth Borne or members of the government […] He doesn’t seem to have convinced the French,” comments Matthieu Croissandeau, an editorial writer for BFMTV. Is the prime minister boasting of a “fair” reform? 74% of those questioned by Elabe think otherwise.
In the meantime, “we discovered that the reform penalized women more and the French realized that by starting to work at 20, they would have to contribute one year more than the others”, stresses Matthieu Croissandeau to explain “this ruling unappealable”. “.
These two points are at the heart of the executive’s difficulties. Regarding women, Franck Riester made a confession: they will be “a little penalized” by the reform, the Minister of Relations with Parliament acknowledged this Monday in LCP. Even if they reach the necessary life annuities at age 62 thanks to the increase of eight quarters per child, they will have to wait until the new legal age, 64, to retire.
The next day, Elisabeth Borne tried to catch up with the National Assembly, denouncing a “bogus trial”. “Women will be the first beneficiaries of the revaluation of small pensions”, justified in particular the holder of Matignon.
Oppositions rush into the gap
As for the long races, there too the executive struggles to convince. In public opinion, of course, but also in Parliament. Even within the majority, some voices are raised to point out the disagreements. Witness Barbara Pompili’s remarks last Monday on BFMTV.com:
“At this point, if I had to vote now, I could not vote for,” said the former minister for the Ecological Transition.
On the side of Les Républicains, if Éric Ciotti, head of the party, is in favor of the reform, not everyone is of this opinion. Following in the footsteps of Aurélien Pradié, around fifteen right-wing parliamentarians are demanding a premium for the contribution period over the legal age so that those who start working earlier are not penalized.
The far right and the far left are rushing into the gap: “The sooner we work, the harder we work, the sooner we have to leave,” Marine Le Pen hammered on BFMTV this week. The New Ecological and Social Popular Union (Nupes) repeats at length in an interview that the most precarious will be the most disadvantaged with this reform. This is “extremely violent” and “it will essentially affect the workers”, for example, he criticized Fabien Roussel on France 2.
“Necessary”, “pedagogy”: the executive’s strategy does not work
To retaliate and convince public opinion, the executive presents more axes. First, he insists on a “necessary” reform to balance the pension system. Problem: The French are not on the same wavelength. On the contrary, 54% consider that the government project is not necessary, according to the Elabe survey for BFMTV.
“It is true that we rarely find positive surveys on sacrificial reforms. But in the past, the French had at least the merit of agreeing with the diagnosis,” says Matthieu Croissandeau.
In 2010, during the pension reform of Éric Woerth, then Labor Minister, “the French were against it, but 8 out of 10 felt that something had to be done,” says our editorial writer. Regarding the method, one word is on everyone’s lips: “pedagogy”. But then again, the operation doesn’t work. The French master the reform well. 88% know it, 20% very well and 68% in general.
“They do not oppose out of ignorance, but with full knowledge of the facts”, stresses Matthieu Croissandeau.
To establish his legitimacy to reform the country, Emmanuel Macron regularly explains that his project “has been presented and validated democratically.” In fact, the Head of State had campaigned indicating his desire to postpone the legal age to 65 during the presidential elections. But this argument does not work with the French. 71% believe that Emmanuel Macron is wrong, he was elected for other reasons, in particular to “block” Marine Le Pen and that it is wrong to say that the reform is democratically validated.
Support for mobilization, even if it leads to blockades
If the government is the big loser in this battle of opinion, the mobilization against the reform seems to be the winner. 64% of respondents approve.
This after the strikes and demonstrations gathered in France, between 1.12 and 2 million people last Thursday; and in light of a new mobilization on Tuesday. As in the first event, the processions could welcome newcomers, unaccustomed to hitting the pavement.
Asked by BFMTV, broker Fabian Giza explains that he went on strike for the first time last Thursday. He will be back on the streets next Tuesday, above all “out of solidarity, a bit like retirees.” Even more worrying for the executive: 57% of the French would understand that the strikers are blockading the country because it is the only way for them to get the government to withdraw or modify its reform.
Annoying for the presidential troops who called for “responsibility” in the face of possible power outages or the February holidays marred by these movements. However, “we must be careful with these issues,” warns Bernard Sananès, director of the Elabe Institute, author of the BFMTV surveys on pension reform.
“As long as we are not in lockdown, some of the opinion can say that it is a solution. But the day the inconveniences arise, the opinion can turn around.
“The doors open for modifications are very thin”
It remains, then, to measure the scope and forms of action of the mobilizations. On this issue, the survey brings a consolation prize to the executive: 71% of those surveyed believe that the pension reform will be voted on and applied. Why? Because “they know that LR could vote, so they say that the Government will be able to carry out this reform”, explains Bernard Sananès.
In a relative majority position in the National Assembly, the Macronists need 40 votes among the 62 Republican deputies. However, nothing is certain, since fifteen oppose the text and others remain undecided before the start of parliamentary debates scheduled for February 6.
Meanwhile, this increasingly clear opposition to the pension reform “makes power think” without “shaking it”, according to Amandine Atalaya. “The doors open for changes to the bill are very slim,” she continues. There will be “maybe a bit about long runs, women, hardship, but not much else.”
Source: BFM TV
