A hypothesis that has something to make the government sweat cold. Faced with the possibility of getting 49.3 next week in the National Assembly on the pension reform, the LR deputies plan to approach the elected representatives of the left and the LIOT group (Libertas, Independientes, Territorios de Ultramar). With the aim of filing a motion of no confidence interpartisan and overthrow the government of Elisabeth Borne.
If more than ten have been presented since the start of the new legislature -including a last one on February 18 by Marine Le Pen after finishing the debates on retirement at 64-, so far no motion has been adopted of censorship.
Convince beyond its simple field
And for good reason: the Nupes have refused since the start of Emmanuel Macron’s second five-year term to vote with Agrupación Nacional, just like the LR. But to overthrow the government, it is necessary to gather 289 votes, therefore far beyond each political account.
The RN group brings together 88 deputies, Nupes 149, LR 61. Suffice it to say that the situation changes if there is a motion of no confidence from more than one side, opening the way for a possible adoption.
For this reason, some LR deputies, opposed to the pension reform, have approached the elected LIOT. Unknown, this group of 20 deputies spreads out and brings together centrists, former macronistas and foreign elected officials. Also in their sights: environmental, socialist and communist deputies.
A motion filed with “reasonable people”
In order to present this interpartisan motion of no confidence, it is necessary to gather 58 votes, a level that seems achievable.
“If we do it, it’s with reasonable people, Gaullists. Communists for example,” an LR deputy told BFMTV, without asking the rebel deputies.
The same story on the side of the socialists. “Yes, we can co-sign it,” says an elected PS, who sees in the LR “a republican party.” Environmentalists, however, put a brake.
“It has to be a broad motion,” says an EELV deputy.
Understand: with written content that can be accepted by the majority of the National Assembly camps. Therefore, words that are too divisive or details of an alternative pension reform should not be part of the text.
The threat of dissolution to discourage LR
It then remains to convince the deputies to a large extent to reach the 289 votes necessary for the motion of censure to be approved. This figure is achievable if the LR vote for it in their vast majority. With the voices of the oppositions and LIOT, there are 298 deputies, that is, 9 little voices in advance.
If this cross-partisan vote of no confidence were adopted, Elisabeth Borne’s government would be overthrown. Emmanuel Macron can then change his prime minister or reinstate his outgoing head of government. But the president has already warned.
“If there is a motion of no confidence that is voted on, I dissolve immediately,” the Élysée tenant had launched last September.
“Sick of Sick”
With a bet: that this threat scares LRs pretty bad. After the election of 61 deputies, an unexpected number after a catastrophic presidential election, the president calculated that the elected representatives of the rue de Vaugirard had no desire to return to their voters.
But another hypothesis different from that of the transpartisan motion is on the table: that of certain right-wing deputies who would vote for the very probable motions of censure of RN and Nupes. A first since the start of the five-year term.
“Of course this gesture would be minority. But fed up for fed up…”, deciphers a right-wing deputy.
Suffice it to say that the gap between the right-wing senators who are doing everything possible to pass the reform in the Luxembourg Palace and the LR deputies would be greater than ever. And Emmanuel Macron was probably worried for the rest of his five-year term. Without the support of right-wing elected officials, the situation would become very difficult for the executive in the coming months.
Source: BFM TV
