It will happen? It wont happen? Decisive and above all uncertain week for the government’s pension reform. While the mixed commission must meet to try to find a compromise text to present to the Senate and the National Assembly, the executive must face opposition from the street while he seeks an absolute majority in the Palacio-Borbón.
The importance of abstention in the chamber
According to our estimates, between 260 and 285 deputies say they are ready to vote for the pension reform. Its approval in the National Assembly, therefore, could be played on a pocket handkerchief. If we take the low range of our estimate, that is, 260 deputies of which 240 are in the majority (1 abstention and 1 vote against), the reform is not approved.
In fact, the estimated majority for this vote is currently 287 deputies. However, some elected officials will abstain or not be present, which should lower this rating.
In the case of high rank, that is, 285 deputies according to our estimate, that is, 245 deputies of the majority (4 abstentions and 1 vote against), 39 LR deputies (then all the undecided would vote for the reform) and 1 unregistered deputy. Then the reform would pass.
According to our BFMTV accountant, arrested on Tuesday night at 7:00 p.m., 222 deputies declare themselves determined to vote for the reform, for an absolute majority estimated at 287 votes. We will update this tally as parliamentary debates progress.
Source: BFM TV
