The executive’s popularity rating is at an all time low. In full mobilization against the disputed pension reform, it is that of the President of the Republic who is particularly flawed, especially since the use of 49.3 to approve the text.
According to a new “L’Opinion en direct” poll conducted by the Elabe institute for BFMTV on the French and the political climate, if the second round of the 2022 presidential election were to take place today, Marine Le Pen would be ahead of Emmanuel Macron. . .
It should be noted that this survey aims to measure the evolution of the balance of political power, one year after the 2022 presidential election. The hypothesis is, therefore, of a similar scenario: therefore, it is not located in the perspective of the 2027 presidential election, whose political offer will be different.
Marine Le Pen well ahead in the first round
Thus, if the first round of the presidential elections were to take place today with the same candidates as in 2022, Marine Le Pen would clearly come out ahead (31%), ahead of Emmanuel Macron (23%) and Jean-Luc Mélenchon (18.5%). %). ) .
The National Rally candidate would gain almost eight points compared to 2022 thanks to an almost perfect report from her voters and thanks to the votes of almost one in five voters in 2022 from Éric Zemmour, Valérie Pécresse, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan and an abstentionist in five.
It would progress in all categories of the population, in particular among retirees and residents of large urban areas, who are traditionally less favorable to it.
73% of Macron voters would vote for him again
Emmanuel Macron would be far behind with 23% of the vote, almost five points less than in 2022 (27.85%). According to the Elabe Institute, this virtual election would effectively take place in a context unfavorable to the Head of State in terms of opinion, in the context of the pension reform.
Thus, he would only benefit from an incomplete transfer of his 2022 voters since only 73% of them would vote for him again.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon would be at 18.5%, almost 3.5 points less than his 2022 score (21.95%). Then followed Éric Zemmour (7%), Yannick Jadot (5%), Fabien Roussel (4%) and Valérie Pécresse (3.5%).
Best Voice Reporting for Marine Le Pen
As mentioned above, the outcome of the second round would be different if it took place today. Marine Le Pen would surpass Emmanuel Macron with 55% of the votes compared to 45% for the current president.
The president of the RN group in the National Assembly would capitalize on her leadership in the first round and would benefit from excellent voting reports. By contrast, compared to 2022, Emmanuel Macron would suffer worse reporting from the voters of Yannick Jadot (52%, -16), Valérie Pécresse (37%, -14) and Jean-Luc Mélenchon (29%, -9).
Only seven out of ten voters for Emmanuel Macron in the second round of 2022 would vote for him again in the event of a duel against Marine Le Pen, two out of ten would abstain and one in ten would change his mind and vote for his opponent.
Between 150 and 180 places for Nupes
The new Elabe poll “L’Opinion en direct” also measures the intention to vote in the event of legislative elections, based on the same political offer as in 2022. This projection in seats is established based on the current balance of power measured in intention to vote, the result of the previous elections and the political history of each of the constituencies.
In the first round, Nupes would be at the same level as in 2022 with 25.5% of the votes. The alliance of left-wing parties would be side by side with the National Group, which would obtain 24.5%. The two forces would thus be ahead of Together, the group with the presidential majority (21.5%), four points less than in 2022).
From this balance of power a projection in seats of the National Assembly can be deduced. Thus, the Nupes would obtain between 150 and 180 seats and the RN between 150 and 170, ahead of Juntos with 130 and 155 seats.
Sample of 1,808 people representing residents of mainland France aged 18 or over, of whom 1,699 are registered on the electoral lists. Questioning by Internet from April 3 to 5, 2023. The representativeness of the sample was ensured according to the quota method applied to the following variables: gender, age, socio-professional category, region of residence and category of agglomeration. Margin of error between 1.3 and 3.1 percentage points.
Source: BFM TV
