Luís Montenegro’s PSD (28.6%) surpassed António Costa’s PSD (28.3%). That is barely three-tenths, in a scenario in which the socialists also stop losses and even record a small recovery compared to last January. According to the Aximage survey for DN, JN and TSF, Chega remains in a solid third place (12.1%). Much further down comes the BE (6.3%), surpassing the Liberal Initiative (6.1%). This is followed by the PAN (4.5%), which seems to be emerging from the shadows, in contrast to the CDU (3.5%), which is sinking slightly further. The Livre (2.7%) and an agonizing CDS (1.3%) close the table.
The poll gives conflicting indications about Luís Montenegro’s ability to lead the PSD to victory in parliamentary elections (which are virtual for now). If we compare it to the last Aximage poll, last January, the Social Democrats are growing by almost four percentage points (the glass is half full). However, if the comparison is made with the last parliamentary elections, it is still half a point lower (glass half empty).
What is the alternative?
Equally questionable are the conclusions that can be drawn about the construction of an alternative. If we use the terminology that Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa imposed on public space, it is clear that there is an arithmetic alternative to law. Add to that the results of the PSD, Chega, the Liberal Initiative and even the CDS and that would yield 48 percentage points, more than enough for a parliamentary majority. Even if the Left (PS, BE, CDU and Livre) would only exceed 40 points by a few tenths.
The situation is very different when calculating a political alternative (that is, in the terminology of the president-commentator, without Chega’s extreme right): the combined result of PSD, Liberals and CDS would be 36 percentage points (the same as last year January, as PSD gains equal IL losses). But perhaps it is important to take a look at the PAN, the party that says it is neither left nor right. Added here, it would be enough to exceed 40 points.
Neither PS nor contraception
Yet Montenegro’s glass is now fuller than Costa’s, an almost unprecedented fact in this series of barometers (since July 2020, the PS has always been ahead, with one exception, in the midst of the 2022 legislature election campaign). The socialists are far from the absolute majority. Although they gained 1.2 points from the last poll, they are more than 13 points lower than they were in the last election.
There is not even a glimpse of a mathematical alternative for the left (much less a political alternative): the sum of the old device would be 38 points. If we add the Livre to it, it would be 40. Even with the PAN it would be 45 points. Less than the rightmost half of the hemicycle (48 points), which has been leading since October last year.
weakest center block
Another possible reading of this research is that the country is moving further and further away from the hegemony of the so-called Central Bloc. In the last legislature, PS and PSD were worth 69 percentage points and more than two-thirds of the deputies. Despite some recovery, they would now be at 57 points. The amplification of party fragmentation in these virtual elections is proof. It is true that third place has an undisputed owner: Chega, led by André Ventura, even loses a few tenths compared to last January’s barometer, but remains the party with the greatest growth, if the comparison is made with the last elections (more five points ).
There are also moves from there, albeit only a few tenths in some cases. With emphasis on Inês Sousa Real’s PAN which, after descending to the level of sole deputy, in the last legislature, seems to be rehearsing a resurgence. It is the second party that grew the most from January to April (1.4 points more) and, more importantly, it is the second party that grew the most compared to the last election (2.9 points more).
New leaders, bad news
Still, the environmental and animal party continues under the Bloco de Esquerda, which gains 1.9 points compared to the legislature, and the Liberal Initiative which, despite being above what it achieved in the elections (another 1.2 points ), blames the change of leader (the replacement of João Cotrim Figueiredo by Rui Rocha coincided with a loss of 3.4 points between the January and April polls this year).
Also, the change of leader of the communists does not seem to bring good news: almost six months after Paulo Raimundo was elected secretary general, the PCP (or CDU, its electoral brand) drops to 3.5%, losing 1.3 points compared to January this year and almost one point compared to the legislative one. To the point that it is already threatened by Livre by Rui Tavares who, despite also falling this year, grows by 1.4 points compared to the 2022 elections.
Little can be said about CDS, the last in the table. A year of leadership by Nuno Melo has added nothing, at least in terms of voting intentions. It would probably remain outside parliament.
Party leaders all in red
It is yet another unprecedented situation in Aximage’s barometers for DN, JN and TSF: there is not a single party leader with a positive balance in the valuation of the Portuguese. They’re all in the red, that is, with more negative reviews than positive ones. With António Costa in the spotlight: because he is currently the worst ranked, with a negative balance of 31 points, and because he had a positive balance of 19 points a year ago. That is, in a year it suffered a staggering 50-point drop.
The PS secretary general entered negative territory from July last year, leaving a single party leader above the waterline, João Cotrim de Figueiredo, of the Liberal Initiative, who remained so until last January. It turns out that the new leader, Rui Rocha, is not entitled to a state of pardon and marks his debut in the barometers with a negative balance (five points) and with a drop in voting intentions (from 9.5% in January even with Cotrim, up 6.1% in April).
Who also announced the departure was the Block coordinator, Catarina Martins, who therefore not only with a negative balance (14 points), but also with steam, waives these barometers. But the biggest drop in April’s vacancy is that of PCP general secretary Paulo Raimundo. Apparently, the increased awareness resulted in a higher bounce rate: it went from a negative balance of 15 points (in January) to 28 points (in April).
When focusing on the evaluation of each party’s electorate against its respective leader, it is clear that André Ventura, from Chega, is the most unanimous, receiving a positive score of nine out of ten. At the other end of the scale, and thus in an awkward position, is Luís Montenegro: only a third of Social Democratic voters give him a positive mark. He still has a long way to go to convince his people that he leads a political alternative.
DATA SHEET
The survey was carried out by Aximage on behalf of DN, TSF and JN, with the aim of gauging the opinion of the Portuguese on topics related to current political events.
The fieldwork took place between 10 and 14 April 2023 and collected 805 interviews among people over the age of 18 living in Portugal.
Sampling was performed based on quotas, obtained through a matrix intersecting gender, age and region (NUTSII), from the known universe, rebalanced by gender, age group and education. For a probabilistic sample of 805 interviews, the maximum standard deviation of a proportion is 0.017 (ie a “margin of error” – at 95% – of 3.45%). Responsible for the study: Aximage Comunicação e Imagem, Lda., under the technical direction of Ana Carla Basílio.
Source: DN
