The Portuguese are not satisfied with the state of democracy, nor with most of the institutions that guarantee its functioning. According to an Aximage poll for DN, JN and TSF, on the occasion of the 49th anniversary of April 25, distrust of the courts and the government is particularly high. On the contrary, confidence in the armed forces and police is high.
The country is already counting down to celebrate half a century of revolution and the poll reveals an ambivalent assessment of democracy. When the questions suggest a balance of these 50 years, including individual rights and freedoms or social rights, the balance is downright optimistic. When asking for an assessment of the present moment, the picture is very different and much more pessimistic.
division between generations
When asking for an assessment of the current state of democracy, dissatisfaction is apparent from the outset. There are more who say it is worse (43%) than those who think it is better (33%), highlighting the pessimism of women, the elderly, those living in the north and those who vote more right .
As for the age groups, the assessment deteriorates with age, to the point where there is a generation gap between the two youngest groups (18 to 49 years old), in which there is a positive balance (difference between the answers they consider who is better and those who say it is worse), and the two older groups (50 years and older), where the balance is negative.
When analyzing party segments, the assessment somehow coincides with a greater or lesser proximity to current political power. Most satisfied with the evolution of democracy are the socialists (the balance is positive), but from there to the left, and especially to the right, the feeling worsens, especially those who vote for Chega and the Liberal Initiative.
presidency in green
Moreover, dissatisfaction with the evolution of democracy seems to be directly related to distrust in the institutions that ensure its functioning. First, with political institutions legitimized through voting. Both the government and the Assembly of the Republic have a negative balance, even if the question is not addressed to the protagonists of the moment: only two Portuguese out of ten trust these sovereign bodies.
The Presidency of the Republic, despite the decrease compared to last year, maintains a positive balance, which coincides with the evaluation of Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa. The presidency maintains a positive balance of 11 points, while the president, as we announced last Saturday, has a positive balance of seven points.
Distrust in Justice
However, it is another sovereign body that arouses more mistrust: the courts are at the bottom of the table in a group of nine institutions, with a negative balance of 30 points. An accentuated negative image in segments such as women, people living in the Porto Metropolitan Area, people aged 65 or older and people with higher incomes. And again, among those who vote more right, with an emphasis on liberal voters, Chega, PAN and PSD (in that order).
In fact, the distrust in the courts seems to reflect a negative evaluation of the judiciary as a whole, as the prosecution also has a negative balance (16 points), showing that the evaluation deteriorates from one year to the next. It is curious to realize that if those who administer justice do not have the trust of the Portuguese, the feeling of the security forces upstream is very different.
army and police
The Armed Forces are highlighted at the top of the table: for every Portuguese who distrusts the military establishment, there are at least two who trust it, resulting in a positive balance of 24 points. This confidence is particularly noticeable among men, the over-65s, residents of the North and among CDS, PS and PSD voters. The only segment with a negative balance votes BE.
The police follows in the same direction. Confidence has also deteriorated, but the balance is positive (14 points). In the analysis of the segments, some differences are noted with regard to the military, as in the case of the police, confidence is higher among women and among those living in Lisbon. But the pattern repeats when the point of view is age (oldest again) or vote, with CDS and PS voters showing more confidence (this is no longer the case for the Social Democrats), and those of the BE more suspicious .
Willow Maia, the greatest figure of the Carnation Revolution
April 25 started as a military coup, which would eventually lead to a popular revolution. It was a time marked by charismatic military and civilians who dominated political life in the following decades. But the one that remained in the hearts of the Portuguese was also one of the most discreet: Salgueiro Maia.
Captain de Abril, who commanded the cavalry column that moved from Santarém to Lisbon and took over the ministries and GNR headquarters in Carmo, culminating in the surrender of Marcelo Caetano, is chosen by 40% of respondents in an Aximage- poll for DN, JN and TSF as the personality most associated with April 25th, leaving figures like Otelo Saraiva de Carvalho (12%), Ramalho Eanes, Francisco Sá Carneiro or Mário Soares (all with 11%) at a great distance .
Everything given and not asked for
The disinterested profile of Salgueiro Maia is well known. So much so that Sophia de Mello Breyner Andresen dedicated a poem to him, after the untimely death of Captain de Abril: “He who in the moment of victory respected the loser; he who gave all and did not ask for payment; he who time of greed has lost his appetite”. And perhaps this has contributed to his becoming a relatively consensual figure.
Salgueiro Maia just missed out among the communist vote segments (they chose Álvaro Cunhal, who was not in Portugal) and the CDS (who preferred Spínola, the general who sent Marcelo Caetano to the Carmo barracks, so as not to suffer the humiliation to surrender to a captain). But he has an above-average percentage among the voters of the two largest parties, PSD and PS (he was elected by 46%, in both cases).
RESEARCH TECHNICAL SHEET
The survey was conducted by Aximage for DN, TSF and DN, with the aim of gauging the opinion of the Portuguese on issues related to the importance of April 25.
The fieldwork took place between 10 and 14 April 2023 and collected 805 interviews among people over the age of 18 living in Portugal.
Sampling was performed based on quotas, obtained through a matrix intersecting gender, age and region (NUTSII), from the known universe, rebalanced by gender, age group and education. For a probability sample of 805 interviews, the maximum standard deviation of a proportion is 0.017 (ie a “margin of error” – at 95% – of 3.45%). Responsible for the study: Aximage Comunicação e Imagem, Lda., under the technical direction of Ana Carla Basílio.
Source: DN
