Most Portuguese do not want an early election, but if there were, only a third believe the PSD could be an alternative government. And Chega’s dependence in parliament would be a bad thing for the country (60%), according to an Aximage poll for DN, JN and TSF. As for the Social Democratic leader, Luís Montenegro, he would not be a better prime minister than António Costa.
The words of Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, last March, about the chances of the PSD coming to power will reverberate for a long time: there is a mathematical alternative, but there is no political alternative. The Portuguese agree with the president, as 52% believe that the PSD has no preconditions to be an alternative to the current government (65% in the case of the older one) and only 33% answer yes. The sentence is unanimous across all regional, age and social segments of the sample. The only exception is the Social Democratic voter, with 68% leaning towards yes and 22% towards no.
If the PSD isn’t ready to be an alternative, it’s not surprising that Montenegro loses when compared to Costa. The answer with the greatest support is the answer that concludes that he would be a worse Prime Minister than the Socialist (36%). Only one in five respondents say it would be better (22%). Unsurprisingly, the PSD president’s best result is among his party’s voters (60%). Still, 35% of those who voted for the PSD believe he would be a prime minister equal to or worse than Costa.
Enough dependency
The Portuguese follow Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in his reading of the difficulties of a political alternative and are also particularly concerned with the arithmetic alternative for the right. Faced with the hypothetical scenario of a PSD relying on Chega to secure a parliamentary majority, 60% respond that it would be a bad situation for the country (very bad for 41%). Voters on the left are most concerned, but this is also the predominant feeling among Liberals (61%) and PSD voters (50%). On the contrary, 20% believe that this conditioning would be a good thing. Especially those who voted for Chega (68%). As for the Social Democratic voters, 28% also see the situation as positive for the country.
There is also a clear majority (61%) who want Montenegro’s position clarified regarding Chega’s eventual parliamentary support for a future PSD government. The percentage of Social Democratic voters who want this clarification is also very high (59%).
DATA SHEET
The survey was carried out by Aximage on behalf of DN, TSF and JN, with the aim of gauging the opinion of the Portuguese on topics related to current political events.
The fieldwork took place between 25 and 30 May 2023 and collected 808 interviews among people over the age of 18 living in Portugal.
Sampling was performed based on quotas, obtained through a matrix intersecting gender, age and region (NUTSII), from the known universe, rebalanced by gender, age group and education. For a probability sample of 808 interviews, the maximum standard deviation of a ratio is 0.017 (i.e. a “margin of error” – at 95% – of 3.4%).
Responsible for the study: Aximage Comunicação e Imagem, Lda., under the technical direction of Ana Carla Basílio.
Source: DN
