Is Vladimir Putin’s regime in danger from the threat of a march on Moscow by Yevgeny Prigozhin?
Even before an agreement with Prigozhin and his exile in Belarus was announced, Putin seemed to have the situation under control and all state institutions, including the secret services, condemned the action of the leader of the Wagner Group. But the takeover by a group of mercenaries of a city like Rostov-on-Don, with a population of one million, was a serious blow to the Kremlin’s credibility and could have unintended indirect consequences for the Kremlin’s future, whether resolved peacefully, as Putin’s secret competitors may be pulling the strings. However, I remember that attempts to change power in Russia have always failed in recent decades, whether it was the August 1991 coup d’état by Soviet regime ultras against Mikhail Gorbachev, or Vice President Alexander Rutskoy’s 1993 uprising against Boris Yeltsin. already after the end of the USSR. Everything is usually decided behind the scenes, as was incidentally the case with the rise of Putin, a former KGB agent who came to Moscow in 1996 from small posts in St. Petersburg, later becoming the head of the FSB’s secret service. – Minister for several months and even assumed the presidency at the end of 1999 after Yeltsin resigned.
How does this crisis in Russia affect the war in Ukraine?
It has direct consequences in three ways: the Wagner group has diverted its men from the Ukrainian front to a military operation in Russia itself (even if they say they are already back), the mercenary control of Rostov-on-Don and the kidnapping of generals who have since had responsibilities in managing the invasion of Ukraine damaged the war effort while it lasted, and it is impossible that the mere possibility of civil war does not affect the morale of Russian soldiers facing a Ukrainian counter-offensive.
How did Ukraine react to events in Russia?
President Volodymyr Zelensky has already said that events in Russia show the weakness of the enemy, but that does not mean he supports the uprising, as the Ukrainian leader has no great reason to sympathize with Prigozhin, whose paramilitaries were involved in some of the defeats of your troops. For Zelensky, the division in Russia and the impact on the will to fight counts most. You will probably have reason to believe in further territorial advances by the Ukrainian army in the coming days. There are reports that Ukrainian troops are celebrating the Russian crisis, which may be premature.
Does the situation in Russia please the West?
Neither the United States nor most European countries are interested in chaos in Russia, a nuclear power. NATO is arming Ukraine, but imposing Ukrainian territory as the only battleground, in an effort to prevent an escalation of the war. A victory for Ukraine will be a victory for the West, but that does not mean the desire for a total defeat for Russia – neither for fear of nuclear action by Putin in desperation, nor for fear of an uncontrolled regime change, with unknown people at the power have access to the nuclear button. Moreover, Prigozhin is anything but a frequent figure seen from Western capitals.
But would the end of the Wagner Group be good news for Americans and Europeans?
Certainly. The Wagner group has been very effective in defending Russian interests in the Middle East and Africa and its dismantling because of Prigozhin would have consequences. But it’s unbelievable that the Kremlin isn’t trying to protect a well-trained militia, especially if it manages to get it to distance itself from the orders of its leader, someone with a questionable future after the uprising, hence the offer of amnesty . .
Though it did not support Russia in Ukraine, did China, seen as Russia’s great strategic ally, respond to the Prigozhin uprising?
Silence is sometimes the best option for Beijing, but China was known to refuse as early as this year to sell arms to the Wagner Group for use in Ukraine. For China, Russia’s stability is important, even if its relative weakness, such as what is already happening due to Western sanctions, has advantages, forcing Moscow to be a staunch ally.
Any suggestions for better understanding Prigozhin and the Wagner Group?
The Wagner Group was initially so secretive that Russia denied its existence, even though it was clear that in wars such as Syria, mercenaries led by Prigozhin were at its service. There are many good articles in the international press about the group and the book Eu, Marat, Former commander of the Wagner Group – In the heart of Vladimir Putin’s secret army (Casa das Letras) has now been published in Portuguese, which is a story lived from the inside and it shows well the profile of the fighters that Moscow used for the most difficult missions abroad.
Source: DN
