Was this uprising by the Wagner group the biggest challenge for Vladimir Putin in 23 years in power?
It’s still too early to say. There is still a lot to explain, namely whether or not there was a staging component in the events. In any case, Prigozhin’s accusatory rhetoric has always been aimed at the political and military elites, and never at the regime, much less at Putin. It turns out that in a system like the Russian one based on concealment, lies and fake news, telling the truth about the limits and inefficiency of Russian military action in Ukraine can be extremely disruptive and lead to significant political changes. But it is certain that Putin, in his image of a strong man, is not coming out of these events well.
What motivations might Yevgeny Prigozhin have had for challenging the Kremlin?
Accepting that the uprising was real, the main reason was the growing frustration with the lack of support given by the Ministry of Defense to the Wagner Group, especially regarding the insufficient and deliberate supply of ammunition. After all, they were the forces most conspicuous on the battlefield. It can also be explained by an element of rivalry between Putin’s main supporters, in a logic of balance of power and influence that always evolves in authoritarian regimes, such as Russia. A clear lack of reaction from the regular Russian troops in stopping the march led by Prigozhin also points to demoralization and discontent in the ranks of the country’s armed forces. We are sure that the leader of the Wagner Group is a popular man in certain sectors of Russian society.
What impact could the uprising, even if it failed, have on the war in Ukraine?
Again, it is too early to draw any definitive conclusions. We know that Ukrainian troops welcomed the news of the uprising, but the political and military authorities in Kiev were more reserved. At first, the episode seems to be working in Ukraine’s favour, as Moscow must now divide its attention between the external and internal costs of the war. However, we do not know exactly what Prigozhin and his men will do in Belarus. And this is a heavy question mark that opens up many possibilities. They are now much closer to the Ukrainian capital, leaning against the northern border, and in a country that has direct and extensive borders with three NATO members. We really have to wait and see, as several scenarios remain open with the Wagners moving to Belarus.
Would the possible fall of Putin and the chaos in Russia be bad news for NATO?
In this respect, NATO countries, and especially their public opinion, must be careful what they wish for. It is one thing to desire a peaceful and orderly transition of leadership in Moscow, preferably one that initiates an eventual democratization of the country. Another thing is a violent regime change, which can lead to civil war or even the disintegration of the Russian Federation itself. We must not forget that it is the largest country in the world, stretching from Europe to the Near East, through Central Asia, and is very ethnically and culturally diverse. In addition, and no less relevant, Russia is one of the major nuclear powers in the world. The nuclear arsenal is terrifying. It is not in NATO’s interests for power to fall to the streets in this country, nor for anarchy to arise in the confrontation between different warlords. I would even venture to say that it would be an apocalyptic scenario for the West.
Are we talking about the end of the Wagner group, so important for Russian foreign policy in the Middle East and Africa?
I doubt this is the case. Despite being formally a “service provider” and having its own business agenda, the Wagner Group has been instrumental in pursuing and defending Russia’s interests in various regions of the world, especially in Africa and the Middle East. Using ruthless and sometimes criminal methods (as happened at the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine), it acts in its own name, but in practice it is the operational arm of the Russian regime. It may change its name and change leadership, but if the Russian regime holds out, this paramilitary group (like others in existence) will continue to operate in the interest of the Kremlin.
Source: DN
