No one expected that the launch, almost incognito, of a system for the conversion of the São Francisco River between the states of Pernambuco and Ceará would make the headlines of Brazilian party politics. But he won: in the photo of the event, between two ministers of Lula da Silva, a somewhat unknown deputy sheriff appears making the L with thumb and forefinger, a traditional gesture of the president’s supporters. It turns out that this deputy, Yury do Paredão, was from Jair Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) and was expelled last Friday the 21st.
The case of Paredão is just one symptom of a wider movement of Bolsonarists, whether political, religious and economic agents or mere anonymous voters, for Lula – the thus “Bolsolulistas”.
In politics, marriages of convenience are most common – the government is interested in bringing in ex-Bolsonaro MPs to expand support in the legislature and some of these former Bolsonarists want to remain strategically close to power – but in other areas the analysts’ perception is that the performance of Lula, of the Workers’ Party (PT), in the economy, with falling inflation and rising social benefits, is contributing.
And the police cases surrounding Bolsonaro and the decision of the electoral court not to deem him eligible to vote, according to observers, also contribute to the change of opinion among the (less radical) voters of the former president.
In addition to Paredão, evangelical pastor Jackson Villar, deputy candidate for the Republicans, the party affiliated with the IURD that Carlos Bolsonaro, Jair’s second son, is campaigning for, published a video comparing the price of supermarket products between the previous and current administrations. “How could I be so blind,” laments Villar in the video, noticing the value has dropped by half, before insulting Paulo Guedes, Bolsonaro’s economy minister. Villar hosts “Acelera Para Jesus”, the famous politico-religious motorcycle ride that Bolsonaro attended as a star.
Still in the religious segment, the new leadership of the Evangelical Parliamentary Front of the National Congress, popularly known as the Bible Bank, is trying to get closer to Lula, after years of intimate relationship, including prayers in the Planalto, with Bolsonaro. “Christ says come to me all, not just a few,” justifies Father Roberto Monteiro, of the PL.
On the market, Alberto Saraiva, a Portuguese-Brazilian businessman who owns the fast food chain Habib” and is a staunch supporter of Bolsonaro until the election, said he would no longer support the former president “for about 500 reasons”, that Lula is “happy and capable” and that Fernando Haddad, the finance minister, is “a 10”. [20, na escala académica portuguesa] and he has the whole market on his side.” According to a survey by Quaest, Haddad, from the PT, is approved by 65% of the market (only 26% supported him at the start of the government).
two-way street
However, Bolsonaristas’ move closer to Lula has two meanings. Aiming to broaden support in the National Congress, the president has also opened the government’s doors to opponents such as Celso Sabino, the new tourism minister, member of the União Brasil, a fusion of parties that were the heirs of the PFL, the political mainstay of the military dictatorship, and a former ally of Bolsonaro.
In this context of exchanging support in the legislature for executive positions, deputies from parties close to Bolsonaro over the past four years, such as the Republicans and Progressives, will have room in a future ministerial reshuffle, according to Lula. They covet the portfolios of Health, Social Development, Sports, Industry, Commerce and Services, Science and Technology, in addition to running the state-owned Caixa Económica Federal. The president has already vetoed some of the claims. But negotiations continue.
At the same time, the adoption at the beginning of this month of the long-awaited tax reform, under the intense collaboration of Haddad and Aguinaldo Ribeiro, deputy of the Progressistas, played an important role in bringing them together. Tarcísio de Freitas, governor of the state of São Paulo for the Republicans, and seen as the leading candidate to succeed the ineligible Bolsonaro, was targeted by radical Bolsonarianism for supporting the reform that simplifies the country’s intricate fiscal web; alongside him, 20 of the 95 deputies of the former president’s party rebelled and voted against the party order to reject the proposal (one of them was Yury do Paredão).
Already in May, Heitor Freire had been appointed by Lula to Sudene, the fund management body in the northeastern region. The same Freire, from União Brasil, had in 2019, at the beginning of Bolsonaro’s term, submitted a request to propose the creation of the “Special Secretariat for the De-Leftistization of Public Administration”. Today he says he regrets: “I recognize that I was from that radical wing and if I could go back I would, but we can’t, we can only keep the lesson, the learning”.
electorate turns coat
As sectors of politics, the market and the churches exchange Bolsonaro for Lula, there is a similar trend in the anonymous electorate. According to a survey by the Ipec Institute, 41% of Bolsonaro voters in October 2022 rate Lula’s government as “great”, “good” or “normal” in June 2023.
Between June 1 and June 5, two thousand people were interviewed in 127 municipalities, the survey shows that 19% of Bolsonaro voters approve of Lula’s way of governing and 16% say they trust the current president.
The poll also gauged the opinion of people who voted for Lula in 2022: 68% think the president’s performance is excellent or good and 27% rate him as fair. Already 3% rate management as bad or terrible.
In detail, it is mainly women, voters between the ages of 45 and 59, middle-class families, Catholics, students without a university education but with a completed secondary school and inner-city residents who, despite choosing Bolsonaro in October, appreciate Lula’s government.
Ipec’s president, Márcia Cavallari, told BBC Brasil that the research shows that “the voting decision is not purely ideological”. “As the government progresses, even those who did not vote for Lula and voted for Bolsonaro will make an assessment of the government and possibly change their position.”
“This is happening because of the perception that inflation and the cost of living have fallen, that economic indicators are better, that Lula would fulfill what he said in the campaign and that he is taking action to fight hunger and poverty.”
Source: DN
