The director of the International Relations course at the University of Miño considers that for the Ukrainians the supposed death of the head of the Wagner Group is a victory for Vladimir Putin. On the Ukrainian side, the disappearance of Yevgeny Prigozhin, in the crash of a Russian plane, will immediately be “good news” for Ukraine, but it will not prevent the appearance of other militias.
Sandra Fernández underlines TSF that the destabilization of the Wagner Group has been going on for two months, since the failed coup on June 24 “carried out by Prigozhin himself, when he undertook a trip to Moscow.”
“For the Ukrainians, any destabilization of the warlike and bellicose Russian military apparatus is good news. However, the joy should not be so wide, because there are other militias,” he says.
President Putin has already allowed “the adoption of new laws since the spring that allow Russia’s governors to create their own militias for use on the Ukrainian front,” he says.
“We are witnessing an internal reorganization of Russia, which prepares society for a long war and prepares Putin to achieve combined military efforts inside Russia, continuing to rely on the paramilitaries. Wagner was, in fact, an important figure. Disappearing, other figures will take his place without a doubt,” he added.
Sandra Fernandes also adds that the Wagner Group is being reconfigured and that there are other figures that can assume a new leadership. “The interest of the Kremlin will be to divide the Wagner Group and allow other paramilitary groups to emerge so that what happened to Prigozhin is not repeated, which is a very great ambition, of a figure who also gained popularity with the space that was given to him. given by President Putin, to make some progress in Ukraine, as the special military operation was a failure compared to Russia’s initial goals.
Sandra Fernandes points out that over time there have been a series of violent deaths of political figures and Russian oligarchs. “A standard” that makes it “difficult to consider this death as a mere accident.”
The researcher points out that if there is an ordered death, the order does not necessarily have to be given by the Russian leader: “Putin, personally, no longer needs to be behind any request for the removal of a figure like Prigozhin. We are talking about a nebula , a constellation of organized people and powers, which makes it possible to command Prigozhin’s death without coming directly from Putin’s mouth.”
Whether it was an accident or a crime, in the opinion of Sandra Fernandes, Vladimir Putin “gained points” internally with the supposed disappearance of the leader of the mercenary group.
“Putin’s objective is the elections in March 2024. We know that the elections will not be democratic, but the Russian president throughout the different re-election cycles has sought popularity and the support of the population. And the death of Prigozhin will be an element on this chessboard of Putin’s re-election.”
Source: TSF
