The economist and dean of the Institute of Political Studies in Paris has no doubt that the sanctions are having a major impact on Russia’s ability to fight in Ukraine. For example, technological sanctions have blocked the possibility of renewing the weapons at the disposal of the Russians. “Restrictions on the sale and delivery to Russia of semiconductors, high-quality German steel and French motors prevent Putin from replenishing destroyed war material. He has lost many modern armored vehicles and is now unpacking the ones used by the Soviet Union that are very obsolete. and less effective. He is unable to produce modern high-precision armored weaponry due to technological sanctions.”
Sergei Guriev says that in this situation, Putin was left with the alternative of increasing combat capacity by using more people, which was costly for him. The Russian dissident says that, until recently, Putin used money to recruit soldiers in the poorest areas of the country. He sometimes paid them ten times what they were paid, so he had no shortage of soldiers. The problem is that the sanctions began to have an impact on Russia’s economy and fiscal capacity and the president was forced to resort to mass mobilization. That step made him more unpopular and the mobilization is not going well.
Guriev argues that if Vladimir Putin had enough money, he would continue to recruit people by paying instead of taking them by force. So the sanctions are succeeding both in their ability to recruit soldiers and in their domestic popularity.
The effect of the sanctions has other consequences and the Russian economist wanted to give another example. “Putin is facing a huge budget deficit, he can’t borrow money due to sanctions and he can’t use the reserves because they were frozen. They were frozen on the third day of the war, so he doesn’t have a reserve fund for his something he’s been building for years using oil and gas profits. The president is going through a very difficult time. He has never faced a fiscal deficit situation at the same time without having access to reserve money.”
Compounding the situation, says the dean of the Institute for Political Studies in Paris, is discontent among Putin’s inner circle. “The sanctions are obviously having a big impact on the Kremlin and that is why Putin is so insistent on the need to lift them. Everyone is unhappy. The businessmen, Putin’s friends, are unhappy that their businesses have been destroyed. The military hierarchies and the KGB are unhappy that the war is not being won The fact that Putin has amassed huge financial resources to build a military machine and that this machine has turned out to be ineffective and corrupt is something that has made him unpopular within the Kremlin itself. The sanctions took away the resources he could use to appease those closest to him.”
Sergei Guriev defends that, in the face of evidence, the West must not give up.
Source: TSF
