An additional victory for the board. The President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron, announced this Sunday, during an interview with TF1 and France 2, the immediate return to Paris of the ambassador in Niamey and the withdrawal, before the end of the year, of 1,500 French soldiers from Niger. Until now, the former colonial power had resisted pressure from the coup plotters who seized power on July 26, overthrowing President Mohamed Bazoum.
“It is a real victory for the junta that is in open war with France,” Arthur Banga, professor of military history at the Félix-Houphouët-Boigny University of Abidjan, in the Ivory Coast, tells BFMTV .com.
The junta will be able to use this news to “remobilize its troops” and “restore morale” to its supporters.
For Niagalé Bagayoko, political scientist and president of the African Security Sector Network contacted by BFMTV.com, “this withdrawal is a request from the junta but above all a demand from public opinion and Nigerien civil organizations for several years.” “. He points out in particular an episode that would have reinforced anti-French sentiment. At the end of November 2021, three protesters died in Niger, in circumstances still unclear, following clashes while blocking a French convoy for Operation Barkhane.
Is the armed action of ECOWAS questioned?
But, above all, “somewhere, France accepts that the military has de facto authority in Niger,” analyzes Arthur Banga. However, Emmanuel Macron recalled during the interview his support for President Bazoum, detained since the end of July with his wife and his son in the presidential residence. He considers him “the only legitimate authority” of the country because he is “elected by his people.”
Diplomatically isolated, the lack of solidarity from its partners on the international scene, European or American, also pushed France to withdraw. “Although they expressed their desire for President Bazoum to return to power, they did not adopt the same firmness as France. They were much less supportive of the option of a military intervention by ECOWAS by example. This had a strong influence on the decision announced yesterday” , explains Niagalé Bagayoko, also a professor at Sciences Po.
Washington also announced this Monday that it was in turn “studying” “all future measures” regarding its military presence in Niger.
If the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) still considers military intervention in Niger as a last resort, the withdrawal of French troops may reduce the likelihood of such action.
“Without the support of France, ECOWAS no longer has the same means, the same capacity,” underlines the professor at the Félix-Houphouët-Boigny University of Abidjan.
On the contrary, according to the president of the African Security Sector Network, this can reinforce the “credibility” of the West African intergovernmental organization, thus dispelling all suspicions of French manipulation.
End of the French presence in the Sahel
With the announcement of the withdrawal of its troops, which remain without a mission since the coup d’état, France definitively puts an end to its military presence in the Sahel. It is the fourth country, after Mali in August 2022, the Central African Republic in December 2022 and Burkina Faso in January 2023, where Paris is forced to withdraw its troops. In all three cases, Paris was ousted by military regimes that came to power after coups.
“This is undoubtedly a new snub to the policy followed by France in the Sahel over the last ten years,” comments Niagalé Bagayoko.
Following the end of Operation Barkhane in November 2022, a decade of anti-jihadist military intervention in the region, a page is definitely being turned.
“Unlike Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal and Gabon, where France has been anchored since independence, its presence in the Sahel was occasional. Therefore, we could speak of a return to normality,” adds Arthur Banga.
An open door to terrorist groups
The big winners from the withdrawal of French troops? The different terrorist groups, affiliated with Al-Qaeda or Daesh, who see their field of action increasingly clear.
“We have seen it in Mali and Burkina Faso, the withdrawal of French forces has given a boost to terrorist groups,” observes the specialist in military history. Since July 26, the date of the coup, jihadist offensives have already increased in Niger: a dozen attacks have left more than a hundred dead, half of them civilians.
“The observation is clear for all actors, national and international: there is a collective failure in the fight against terrorism. The authorities speak of success (Emmanuel Macron repeated it this Sunday, NB) but for 10 years, the jihadist presence has only “It has been anchored in the Sahel and is now spreading towards coastal countries,” adds political scientist Niagalé Bagayoko.
In addition to the jihadist movements, which have been clashing violently for three years, self-defense groups and independence groups are proliferating.
“The regional theater is totally destabilized, it is a multidimensional crisis,” he emphasizes.
For the junta that took power in Niger, this security problem seems relegated to the background: the population expects it to address other internal political issues such as corruption, nepotism… The withdrawal of French troops thus puts the coup plotters , who until now have resorted to extremely nationalist rhetoric, “facing their responsibility.” “Ultimately, the withdrawal of French troops could constitute an obstacle for the junta,” says the president of the African Security Sector Network.
Source: BFM TV
