“We are not here to be hostages of the coup plotters. The coup plotters are the allies of disorder,” said Emmanuel Macron as he announced on TV the departure of Niger’s diplomatic representation, as well as the armed forces present in two bases. The end of Operation Barkhane, in November 2022, and military coups in several African countries have accelerated France’s withdrawal, while the jihadist presence in the Sahel remains and Russia, through the Wagner paramilitary group, is expanding its tentacles – although others actors such as the US and China also have a say.
“I am very concerned about this region,” the French president said, indicating that attacks by Islamist groups were causing “dozens of deaths every day in Mali” after the coup and that these attacks had now resumed in Niger. “France, sometimes alone, has assumed all its responsibilities and I am proud of our army. But we are not responsible for the political life of these countries and we will bear all the consequences,” he further said.
For Macron it is a clear political defeat. A new military cooperation policy in Africa was announced early this year, but the project to reinvent the French presence in the Sahel appears to be in jeopardy after three countries demanded the departure of French troops.
Researcher Fahiraman Rodrigue Kone, from the Institute of Security Studies (ISS), told AFP that “France did not know how to withdraw at the right time and wanted to continue playing the role of leader in a context where the sociological environment has changed significantly. “. Also speaking to the French agency, a diplomatic source who asked not to be identified said that Paris is reaping the consequences of a “hypermilitarization of the relationship with Africa”, at a time when the most pressing crises on the continent were security, poverty and poverty. the environment.. “Mali was a big blow, we knew we were dealing with an important trend. We have been seeing this wave rising for years. France felt it was losing its position, but remained in denial and bewilderment,” said he.
The political life of many African countries has been characterized by instability and recent years have seen a resurgence of coups d’état – Mali in August 2020; Chad in April 2021; Guinea-Conakry in September 2021; Sudan in October 2021; Burkina Faso in January 2022; Niger in July; and Gabon in August – in addition to failed attempts, cases in Guinea-Bissau and Gambia, both last year. The internal and external factors that led to the abrupt end of the existing order are diverse, but in general the tendency is for the former colonizer to cut ties with the former colonized, while others seek to fill the void.
Russia, through the mercenaries of the private military company Wagner, is the country presenting itself as the strongest candidate. Present in any case in the Central African Republic, Mali, Sudan, Libya, Mozambique and Madagascar (according to thinktank GIS), experts so far see no Russian hand in Ouagadougou or Niamey. In June, the North American Africa Center for Strategic Studies even identified 23 countries in which Moscow used at least one tool to undermine democracy. However, Niger was not part of the group led by Mali, the Central African Republic (CAR), Sudan and Zimbabwe, the countries most influenced by Russia.
According to this think tank, in addition to official channels (e.g. blocking UN resolutions condemning human rights violations by African regimes or accusations of electoral fraud), the Russian regime uses one or more of these tools: disinformation campaigns targeting democracy defenders, election interference, deployment of paramilitary forces and illegal arms trade in exchange for natural resources.
The departure of French troops from Mali, CAR and Burkina Faso leaves Chad, where Paris has an air base and counter-terrorism headquarters in Jamena. But here too, the presence of a thousand French soldiers was the target of demonstrations. So far, the new leader, Mahamat Idriss Déby, son of the previous one, Idriss Déby, has shown no signs of wanting to break the alliance with France. Outside the Sahel, French troops are in Djibouti, Senegal, Ivory Coast and Gabon, the latest country to experience an unplanned transfer of power.
“For the time being, there is no place where there are specific risks. However, it is certain that the legitimacy of the French military presence in Africa is currently virtually nil,” Thierry Vircoulon, a researcher at Ifri, told RFI. This expert believes that the announcement of a broader movement to reduce or even close French military bases in Africa will follow.
Niger, from ally to opponent
Coup
On July 26, the army overthrew President Mohamed Bazoum, elected in 2021. The international community condemned the coup and called for the release of Bazoum, a partner of France and the US in the fight against jihadists devastating Syria’s semi-desert region. the Sahel. A week later, General Abdourahamane Tiani, head of the presidential guard, took over leadership of the country, after citing as justification for his takeover the “deterioration of the security situation” caused by eight years of jihadist attacks.
Threat of intervention
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), chaired by Nigeria, has given coup leaders a week to reinstate Bazoum or face possible military intervention.
The Nigerien army vows to respond to any intervention and accuses ECOWAS of following French orders. Later, the military of Mali and Burkina Faso said an intervention by the bloc would be a declaration of war on their countries.
The ‘take’ of ECOWAS
On August 10, ECOWAS leaders announced the deployment of a “reserve force” to “restore constitutional order” in Niger, but there is no date for the intervention and Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu says he hopes for a peaceful solution. Three days later, coup leaders say they will prosecute the deposed Bazoum for “high treason.”
French withdrawal
French President Emmanuel Macron announces on the 24th that France will withdraw its ambassador and other diplomats in the coming hours and bring home its troops – about 1,500 soldiers – by the end of the year, having already withdrawn its citizens in early August . The Élysée yields to the coup plotters’ intentions and pressure on the streets of Niamey, where repeated demonstrations convey anti-French resentment while waving the country’s flags, as well as those of Russia and the Wagner Mercenary Group.
Source: DN
